Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Serie A match.
The dramatic finale of the Serie A season reaches its climax on Friday evening. Napoli need only to defeat Cagliari or hope for Inter Milan to drop points in a concurrent fixture to secure their second Scudetto in the last three seasons.
Napoli
Recent slip-ups against Genoa (2:2) and Parma (0:0) have shown that Napoli are feeling the pressure at the top of the standings. Last weekend, the squad generated just 0.38 xG against Parma, who are still battling relegation. However, Napoli currently boast the tightest defence in Serie A, having conceded only 27 goals. On home turf, they have taken 42 points from 18 matches — a record bettered only by Inter Milan, who have 43 from 19.
Cagliari
A comprehensive 3:0 victory over Venezia in their previous outing allowed Cagliari to enter the final round with a comfortable gap above the relegation zone. Still, their attacking output away from home remains among the weakest in the league: despite producing 20.51 xG on their travels, they have scored just 16 goals — with only four teams registering fewer. Cagliari have also lost Zito Luvumbo to another injury, further diminishing an already limited attacking unit.
Napoli vs Cagliari Prediction
In the reverse fixture back in September, Napoli cruised to a 4:0 win away from home. This time, a narrow victory would suffice. Napoli may find it difficult to generate a high volume of chances, but they are unlikely to concede against Cagliari.
