Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Copa Libertadores match.
With new head coach Hernán Crespo at the helm, São Paulo are ticking along nicely — averaging 1.91 points across his first 11 games. The first leg of this round of 16 tie finished goalless, but the Brazilians came away from Medellín with plenty of luck on their side.
São Paulo
The visitors were second best in Colombia and could easily have been punished. Atlético Nacional squandered 2.50 xG, hit the woodwork twice, and missed a penalty — with keeper Rafael Monteiro saving another to keep São Paulo alive. The team, by contrast, managed just five attempts, none on target, and only 0.23 xG. At least at home the numbers look brighter: six wins from their last eight at Morumbi, scoring two or more goals in each of those victories.
Atlético Nacional
The Colombians may regret their wastefulness. Their away record in the Libertadores is dismal — six straight defeats without scoring a single goal. In fact, three of those losses came by a 1:0 scoreline, showing how little resistance they’ve offered on the road. If that pattern repeats, even a modest performance from São Paulo could be enough.
São Paulo vs Atlético Nacional Prediction
São Paulo are not flawless at Morumbi, but they rarely fail to get the job done. Given Nacional’s away struggles, the hosts should have enough quality to progress.
