Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the 2026 FIFA World Cup qualifying match.
Uruguay
Uruguay's goal-scoring prowess in the Copa America has shown that the national team can smoothly transition from the Luis Suárez and Edinson Cavani era. While Darwin Núñez still needs to improve his finishing skills, they consistently generate xG. In the quarter-final against Brazil, they took 12 shots with 0.95 xG (winning 1:0 after a penalty shootout). In the semi-final, the team spent the entire second half with a numerical advantage against an opponent focused on defence despite leading. Uruguay find it easier to operate in an open game, which we are likely to see in the upcoming match.
Paraguay
From their performances in pre-Copa friendlies, it was evident that Paraguay were not prepared to make an impact in the tournament (0:3 loss to Chile). During the group stage, the Paraguayan side conceded eight goals, with Brazil creating 4.22 xG from 17 shots against them. The defensive pair of Omar Alderete and Fabián Balbuena does not pose a significant challenge for opponents' quick attacks.
Uruguay - Paraguay Prediction
In the past eight years, Uruguay have beaten Paraguay four times (with another match ending in a draw). A packed stadium in Montevideo will support the favourites to close the Luis Suárez chapter with a resounding victory.
