Odds overview
Spain are narrow favourites in the 1X2 market: Spain to win is available at 2.45, England to win at around 2.90 and the draw at 3.40. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.85 is slightly shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 1.95. At a handicap of 0, Spain Draw No Bet at 1.77 is favoured over England Draw No Bet at 2.05.
Why Spain are favourites
The bookmakers favour the visitors: Spain to win is offered at 2.45, England to win at 2.90 and the draw at 3.40.
- Spain begin the tournament as reigning world champions, underlining their quality and status as favourites.
- England have lost several players to injury — Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo and others. This significantly weakens the hosts in midfield and attack.
- Spain have scored in eight of their last ten matches in all competitions.
Form and Line-up England
England impressed at the 2026 FIFA World Cup, reaching the semi-finals before losing to Argentina (1:2). In the third-place play-off, however, the Three Lions recovered and played out a goal-filled thriller against France — 6:4. England finished the previous UEFA Nations League campaign in League B, comfortably taking first place with 15 points and a goal difference of 16:3.
- England have scored at least once in eight of their last ten home matches in all competitions.
- England have scored in nine of their last ten matches in all competitions.
- At least two goals have been scored in eight of England’s last ten matches in all competitions.
Probable England line-up (4-2-3-1): Jordan Pickford, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Marc Guéhi, Ezri Konsa, Nico O'Reilly, James Garner, Elliot Anderson, Bukayo Saka, Jude Bellingham, Morgan Rogers, Harry Kane.
Absentees: Dan Burn, Dean Henderson, Reece James, Declan Rice, Cole Palmer, Marcus Rashford, Kobbie Mainoo, Tino Livramento, Djed Spence, John Stones (all injured).
Form and Line-up Spain
Spain are dominating everyone. Luis de la Fuente’s side won the 2026 FIFA World Cup, beating Argentina in the final (1:0 after extra time). Spain also performed well in the UEFA Nations League, reaching the final and losing to Portugal only after a penalty shoot-out (2:2, 3:5 on penalties).
- At least one goal has been scored in eight of Spain’s last ten matches in all competitions.
- No more than three goals have been scored in eight of Spain’s last ten matches in all competitions.
- Spain’s last seven UEFA Nations League matches have produced Over 2.5 goals.
Probable Spain line-up (4-2-3-1): Unai Simón, Eric García, Dean Huijsen, Pau Cubarsí, Marc Cucurella, Rodri, Fabián Ruiz, Lamine Yamal, Fermín López, Nico Williams, Mikel Oyarzabal.
Absentees: Joan García (injured), Gavi (suspended).
The teams’ chances
The fair-odds assessment gives Spain a 39.0% chance at odds of 2.57, compared with England’s 32.9% at 3.04; the draw is assessed at 28.1% and 3.56. The bookmaker’s odds are 2.45 for Spain to win, 2.90 for England to win and 3.40 for the draw.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| England to win | 2.90 | 3.04 | 32.9% |
| Draw | 3.40 | 3.56 | 28.1% |
| Spain to win | 2.45 | 2.57 | 39.0% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals is available at 1.85, compared with 1.95 for Under 2.5 goals, suggesting a slight preference for a higher-scoring match. At the 3.5-goal line, Under 3.5 goals at 1.37 is considerably more likely than Over 3.5 goals at 2.85.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 1.95 | 1.85 |
| 3.5 | 1.37 | 2.85 |
Handicap prediction
England (-1.5) are offered at 4.90 and Spain (-1.5) at 4.50; England (+1.5) are available at 1.15 and Spain (+1.5) at 1.12. For a -1 handicap, the odds are 4.30 for England (-1) and 3.80 for Spain (-1); for a +1 handicap, they are 1.22 for England (+1) and 1.17 for Spain (+1). At a handicap of 0, Spain Draw No Bet at 1.77 is favoured over England Draw No Bet at 2.05.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 4.90 | -1.5 | 4.50 |
| 1.15 | 1.5 | 1.12 |
| 4.30 | -1 | 3.80 |
| 1.22 | 1 | 1.17 |
| 2.05 | 0 | 1.77 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.67 and looks more likely than Both teams to score — No at 2.15, which requires at least one team to fail to score.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.67 |
| No | 2.15 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
53/100
|
3/10
|
9/25
|
| William Hill |
1/2
|
7/20
|
2/5
|
| 888sport |
53/100
|
33/100
|
2/5
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
The bookmakers have set the following team goal lines for this match: England — 1 goal; Spain — 1.5 goals.
England team total goals
England team total goals: Over 0.5 at 1.30 is strongly favoured over Under 0.5 at 3.25; at the 1-goal line, Over 1 is available at 1.60 compared with 2.25 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is offered at 1.55 and Over 1.5 at 2.40.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.25 | 0.5 | 1.30 |
| 2.25 | 1 | 1.60 |
| 1.55 | 1.5 | 2.40 |
Spain team total goals
Spain team total goals: Over 0.5 is offered at 1.23 compared with 3.70 for Under 0.5, while Over 1 is available at 1.47 compared with 2.60 for Under 1. At the 1.5-goal line, Under 1.5 is available at 1.62 and Over 1.5 at 2.20; at the 2-goal line, Under 2 is offered at 1.25 and Over 2 at 3.65.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 0.5 | 1.23 |
| 2.60 | 1 | 1.47 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.20 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.65 |
Who Will Referee the Match
Davide Massa (Italy)
Matches — 14 (international matches, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 23;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.1;
Matches with red cards — 4 of 14;
Matches with penalties — 5 of 14.
