Chelsea to Return to the Elite: Odds and Predictions for the 2024-25 Season
Guardiola’s Student Also Faces a Crisis.
Chelsea crashed out of the FA Cup and dropped out of the Premier League’s top four—all within a week. Enzo Maresca first gave fans hope, only to take it away just as quickly. Are we simply witnessing an expected slump amid steady team development? Jokes aside, they’re still in European competitions. Let’s assess the Blues’ chances this season and, of course, suggest the best betting options.
The title odds speak for themselves. You can bet on Chelsea to be the champions at
500/1
Even Nottingham Forest, the season’s biggest surprise, has twice as short odds. Amusingly, Betfred had Chelsea at 16/1 before the season kicked off.
Chelsea in the 2024-25 Season Betting Odds
Interestingly, those same Betfred experts predicted a 10th-place finish for Chelsea. Somewhat contradictory data, but one thing is clear—Chelsea and Maresca have been a pleasant surprise. Fans can only hope this current slump doesn’t last too long.
Chelsea Premier League Top Finish Odds
Talking About a Top-2 Finish? Not a Chance with THESE Liverpool and Arsenal. Securing a top-four spot, however, is still a realistic goal for Chelsea, especially with solid odds. Their main competitors? Manchester City and the surprise package of the season, Nottingham Forest.
Being knocked out of all domestic cups has lightened Chelsea’s schedule, allowing them to focus on the Conference League. Clearly, the club’s management sees the tournament as important, as the odds for Chelsea to win it have shortened since the league stage began.
Maresca’s Future
Chelsea have been in turmoil throughout the so-called post-Abramovich era. Todd Boehly and his consortium have spent over £1 billion on transfers in just a couple of years, yet the average league finish remains eighth. What kind of humiliation is that?
Maresca, who guided Leicester City back to the Premier League, was brought in to build a new team. Expecting instant success is simply naïve. The last manager to achieve something significant in his first season at Chelsea? Thomas Tuchel in 2021.
The stats are brutal for anyone daring to manage Chelsea. Over the past decade, the average tenure of a head coach has been just 15 months. Only Antonio Conte and José Mourinho have lasted more than two seasons. Under Boehly, the managerial merry-go-round has only accelerated. With three defeats in their last four matches, Maresca has every reason to start worrying about his job. In fact, he’s currently the third favourite to be the next Premier League manager sacked.
That said, no Premier League manager has ever been sacked with odds this high. If you’re considering a bet, it might be wise to wait until the odds drop to around 3/1—by which point, of course, certain results would have to precede it. For now, the situation isn’t disastrous.
And crucially, the Chelsea board still backs Maresca—at least according to Europe’s top transfer insider, Fabrizio Romano:
Squad, Transfers, and Individual Award Contenders
In 2023, Chelsea spent £285 million, setting a record for the winter transfer window. Ahead of this season, they also made significant investments.
Transfers In
-
Pedro Neto – Wolverhampton Wanderers (£54m)
-
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall – Leicester City (£30m)
-
Filip Jörgensen – Villarreal (£20.7m)
-
Omari Kellyman – Aston Villa (£19m)
-
Aaron Anselmino – Boca Juniors (£15m)
-
Renato Veiga – Basel (£11.8m)
-
Caleb Wiley – Atlanta United (£8.5m)
-
Marc Guiu – Barcelona (£5m)
-
Tosin Adarabioyo – Fulham (Free)
In the recently closed winter transfer window, Chelsea made only one signing: Amougou from Saint-Étienne for £12.8m. However, they did see several departures:
Transfers Out
-
Cesare Casadei – Torino (£11.3m)
-
Axel Disasi – Aston Villa (Loan, £5.2m)
-
João Félix – AC Milan (Loan, £4.8m)
-
Renato Veiga – Juventus (Loan, £3.5m)
-
Carney Chukwuemeka – Borussia Dortmund (Loan with £41.7m option to buy)
-
Ben Chilwell – Crystal Palace (Loan)
Maresca is restructuring the squad, favoring a 4-3-3 formation that shifts into 3-2-4-1 in possession. This is achieved by inverting the full-backs, creating numerical superiority in midfield and allowing Chelsea to control the game effectively.
While Chelsea aren’t a high-pressing team, they rank top five in both shots and goals. Their real strength lies in playing on the counter. In goals from counter-attacks, they are tied for fourth place with Arsenal.
Chelsea 2024-24 season stats
|
Metric |
Result (League Rank) |
|
Wins |
12 (5) |
|
Goals Scored |
47 (5) |
|
Shots |
400 (4) |
|
Shots on Target |
143 (4) |
Cole Palmer, who carried Chelsea last season, has hit a rough patch. However, his explosive start means he remains in the top five scorers.
Catching up with Salah and Haaland seems unlikely, but Palmer is currently the second-favorite for the PFA Player of the Year award.
In terms of passing, two Chelsea players rank in the top 10 in the league:
-
Levi Colwill – 1,790 passes
-
Moisés Caicedo – 1,486 passes
However, defensive issues persist. Chelsea are mid-table in goals conceded and rank eighth from the bottom in clean sheets. Goalkeeper Robert Sánchez has made four errors leading to goals—the most in the Premier League.
Chelsea in the 2024-2025 Season Prediction
One of Chelsea’s key rivals, Manchester City, seems to be recovering from their slump, which is bad news for the Blues, who are experiencing their worst form of the season. The good news? Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have yet to slip up, but given their squad depth, it would be miraculous for them to sustain their form all season.
Under Maresca, Chelsea are gradually shedding the burden of past haphazard signings and developing a clear identity. In 17 of the last 20 seasons, Chelsea have finished in the top four. They have never gone three consecutive seasons without Champions League football in that span.
First-time Chelsea managers have won European trophies before—Di Matteo and Tuchel even secured Champions League titles. Given the struggles of the past few years, winning the Conference League would still be seen as a major success.
Chelsea’s Premier League fate will likely be decided in the next five matches, depending on Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest, and City’s form. As for the Conference League, Chelsea should be expected to win it.
Barcelona
Osasuna
