Formula 1 in the 2026 Season: Betting Odds and Bookmaker Favourites

A technical revolution or the final nail in the coffin for internal combustion engines in the name of ecology? The death of overtaking or, on the contrary, a fresh wave of wheel-to-wheel action without the familiar DRS zones? These are only a handful of the hot-button debates that have dominated discussions among fans of the pinnacle of motorsport over recent months.

2026 Drivers’ Championship Winner

Russell

2/1

Verstappen

11/4

Norris

13/2

One thing, however, is beyond dispute: the 2026 campaign could mark a true turning point, ushering in a new generation of cars unlike anything we have seen before.

It would be no surprise if, as early as pre-season testing, former backmarkers break into the top five, while the established podium regulars find themselves wrestling with unexpected setbacks.

Let us take a closer look at the sweeping changes set to reshape the cars and teams in 2026, and assess which drivers and constructors the bookmakers are backing for glory.

2026 Drivers’ Championship Winner

If you were surprised to see George Russell listed among the title favourites, rest assured this is no pricing error. It is a calculated forecast based on the potential edge that could be gained by Mercedes and Red Bull. More on that shortly.

George Russell to win the 2026 season

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2/1

Analysts appear less convinced about a repeat triumph for Lando Norris. The incoming regulations could significantly level the playing field, and there is no absolute certainty that Zak Brown’s squad will be able to dominate as they did last year.

Lando Norris to win the 2026 season

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13/2

Toto Wolff has already voiced his dissatisfaction at the sizeable advantage McLaren extracted from the Mercedes High Performance Powertrains project:

Meanwhile, Ford Performance Motorsport, Red Bull’s new engine partner, has adopted a more cautious tone. Director Mark Rushbrook admitted he does not expect instant domination from the outset of 2026.

He also stressed that Ford are not building a power unit from scratch but focusing primarily on enhancements linked to the revised regulations:

Red Bull to win the Constructors’ Championship in 2026

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8/1

Despite that, bookmakers remain confident that Max Verstappen is firmly in the title hunt. The Dutchman has even hinted that if the new car fails to deliver throughout the season, he could consider stepping away from Formula 1 to focus on other racing disciplines.

How strong do you believe the chances are for Franz Hermann The pseudonym Verstappen selected for his appearance at the 24 Hours of Nürburgring. , to secure the crown this year?

Max Verstappen to win the 2026 season

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Bet

11/4

Key Differences between the 2025 and 2026 Cars

The primary objective of the new technical regulations is to radically rethink the design philosophy, producing lighter and more agile machinery, while making the driving experience more intuitive.

A cornerstone of the overhaul is active aerodynamics, aimed at eliminating the prolonged wait for the one-second detection window required to deploy DRS. Overtaking should, in theory, become more straightforward, intensifying the fight and enabling slower cars to mount stronger challenges.

Naturally, sustainability remains central, prompting fears among some fans that Formula 1 could drift closer to Formula E territory.

Appearance, Size and Weight

• Cars will be more compact, with a reduced wheelbase of 3400mm instead of 3600mm and a narrower width of 1900mm rather than 2050mm.
• The 18-inch wheel diameter remains, though tyre profiles will change.
• Additional side indicators will display ERS status.
• Minimum weight drops to 768kg, 30kg lighter than current cars.
• Tyres will weigh approximately 46kg.

The greatest challenge in achieving weight reduction lies in accommodating heavier batteries, as the hybrid system will assume a far greater share of acceleration duties.

Aerodynamics

• The traditional DRS system is scrapped in favour of active aerodynamics. Both front and rear wings will feature moveable elements:

– On straights, drivers can flatten the flaps to reduce drag.

– In corners, the flaps rise via a steering wheel button or under braking.

• These components will have only two fixed positions. Any deviation beyond prescribed angles will result in disqualification, as excessive movement could illegally boost downforce.
• The front wing is 100mm narrower, with a two-element active section. The rear wing becomes a three-element design, two of which are adjustable.
• Ground effect is significantly reduced. A new flat floor cuts downforce by 30 percent but reduces drag by a remarkable 55 percent. Engineers promise cleaner air for pursuing cars, though its real-world effectiveness remains to be seen.

Power Unit

Teams may use one additional power unit due to the increased strain expected under the new rules.

• Internal combustion output drops to 545 hp from 750–760 hp, with energy efficiency reduced from 550–560 kW to 400 kW.
• Hybrid output rises dramatically from 120 kW to 350 kW, equating to an additional 475 hp.
• Fuel must be delivered through a single injector, and each cylinder is limited to one spark plug. The FIA rejected proposals for dual systems.
• An Override Mode is introduced. If within one second of a rival, a driver can activate extra electric power for overtaking, functioning as an alternative to DRS and working alongside active aero.

Energy deployment for the leading car will taper off beyond 290 km/h, giving chasing drivers a better opportunity to close the gap.

Tyres

• Front tyres will be 25mm narrower, rears 30mm narrower. The reduced contact patch will impact launch performance off the line.

Regulatory Changes

• Stricter crash-test standards and reinforced energy-absorbing chassis structures.
• Six power unit manufacturers will compete in 2026: Alpine Racing, Audi, Ferrari S.p.A., Honda Racing Corporation, Mercedes-AMG High Performance Powertrains Ltd and Red Bull Ford.
• Full transition to sustainable fuel.
• Teams must retain at least 0.7 litres of fuel for post-race sampling, down from 1 litre last year.
• The Halo must now withstand 20G loads, up from 16G. Testing force increases from 141 kN to 167 kN.
• With Cadillac joining the grid and expanding the field to 22 drivers, six competitors will be eliminated in Q1 and Q2 instead of five.

Could Red Bull and Mercedes Hold the Edge?

Earlier, we promised to explain why Ferrari, Audi and Aston Martin have effectively lined up against Red Bull and Mercedes. The root of the dispute lies in the now infamous debate over the permitted compression ratio. First of all, let us clarify what that actually means.

The controversy centres on compression ratios. In simple terms, this is the ratio between the total cylinder volume at bottom dead centre and the combustion chamber volume at top dead centre.

Higher compression allows more mechanical energy extraction. The 2026 rules reduce compression from 18:1 to 16:1, with compliance measured off-track at ambient temperature.

Mercedes to win the Constructors’ Championship in 2026

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11/10

There have also been widespread reports in the media suggesting that Mercedes and Red Bull may have identified a loophole in the regulations by exploiting the thermal expansion of materials. The theory is that their bespoke alloys are sufficiently responsive to temperature changes to automatically increase the compression ratio once the engine reaches full operating heat. However, it is important to stress that all compliance checks are conducted strictly at room temperature, not after 50 laps at Monza.

Most significantly, the FIA have accepted the interpretation of the rules put forward by Mercedes and Red Bull and are in no rush to impose sanctions. That leaves rival engine manufacturers with a clear task: develop their own advanced alloys capable of restoring the previous 18:1 compression ratio under race conditions.

If it is still not entirely clear how these teams could gain a performance edge, do not worry. The first meaningful performance indicators will only emerge during pre-season testing. Until then, it remains a matter of theory and speculation.

Team Line-Ups for 2026

To begin with, let us run through the key changes to the team line-ups for the 2026 season:

• Oracle Red Bull Racing. Isack Hadjar replaces Yuki Tsunoda.

• Visa Cash App Racing Bulls F1 Team. Arvid Lindblad makes his Formula 1 debut, stepping in for Isack Hadjar.

• Cadillac. Sergio Perez and Valtteri Bottas become the team’s first race drivers.

• Audi Revolut F1 Team. Following Audi’s acquisition of Sauber in 2024, Gabriel Bortoleto and Nico Hulkenberg will represent the German marque in 2026.

2026 Formula 1 Team Line-Ups

2026 Season Car and Engine Launch Schedule

Pre-season Testing Schedule

Testing in Barcelona runs from 26 to 30 January. After a brief break, teams will head to Bahrain.

At the Sakhir circuit, running is split into two phases: 11-13 February and 18-20 February.

The season then begins in Melbourne with the Australian Grand Prix from 6 to 8 March.

2026 Formula 1 Pre-Season Testing Results

Barcelona

2026 Formula 1 World Championship Calendar

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