Odds overview
Sweden are clear favourites: a home win is available at 1.50, while the draw and a Romania win are quoted at around 4.60 and 6.00. In the main totals market, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is notably favoured over Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. In the handicap market, Sweden (-1) at 1.80 looks more likely than Romania (+1) at 2.00.
Why Sweden are favourites for the match
The bookmakers favour the home side: a Sweden win is quoted at 1.50, the draw at 4.60 and a Romania win at 6.00.
- Sweden have shown strong attacking consistency, scoring at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches in all competitions.
- The visitors' defensive record is markedly weaker: Romania's opponents have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 matches.
- Sweden have not lost to Romania in their last three official matches.
Form and Line-up Sweden
In their most recent official match, on 30 June 2026 Sweden ended their World Cup campaign with a 0:3 defeat to France in the Round of 32.
Sweden were perfect in the UEFA Nations League — finishing first in League C with 16 points (goal difference 19:4).
- Over 2.5 goals landed in 8 of Sweden's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- Sweden have taken at least 4 corners in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
- Sweden have received no more than 2 yellow cards in 8 of their last 10 home matches in all competitions.
Probable Sweden line-up (3-5-2): Viktor Johansson, Elliot Stroud, Carl Starfelt, Victor Lindelöf, Emil Holm, Lucas Bergvall, Jesper Karlström, Yasin Ayari, Gabriel Gudmundsson, Viktor Gyökeres, Alexander Isak.
Absentees: Anthony Elanga, Gustaf Lagerbielke, Isak Hien, Jacob Widell Zetterström (all injured).
Form and Line-up Romania
Romania lost to Turkey (0:1) in the World Cup 2026 play-offs, then played three friendlies, losing to Slovakia (0:2), drawing with Georgia (1:1) and beating Romania (2:1). Gheorghe Hagi is preparing the national team for the new UEFA Nations League campaign and has selected a squad for the tournament's first four matches. Romania's previous UEFA Nations League campaign ended quite successfully — they finished first in League C with a perfect record (six wins, goal difference 18:3).
- At least two goals were scored in 8 of Romania's last 10 matches in all competitions.
- At least 8 corners were recorded in 8 of Romania's last 10 away matches in all competitions.
- Romania did not receive more yellow cards than their opponents in 9 of their last 10 away matches in all competitions.
Probable Romania line-up (4-3-3): Andrei Radu, Andrei Rațiu, Radu Drăgușin, Andrei Burcă, Nicusor Bancu, Răzvan Marin, Ianis Hagi, Vlad Dragomir, Dennis Man, Daniel Bîrligea, Valentin Mihăilă.
Absentees: Florinel Coman (doubtful).
Team chances
A Sweden win is quoted at 1.50; the fair odds are 1.58 and the probability is 63.4%. The corresponding figures for the draw are 4.60, 4.83 and 20.7%, and for a Romania win 6.00, 6.30 and 15.9%: the market rates a Sweden victory considerably more highly.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Fair probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sweden win | 1.50 | 1.58 | 63.4% |
| Draw | 4.60 | 4.83 | 20.7% |
| Romania win | 6.00 | 6.30 | 15.9% |
Total goals prediction
At the 2.5-goal line, Over 2.5 goals at 1.63 is notably shorter than Under 2.5 goals at 2.30. At 3.5, the relationship is reversed: Under 3.5 goals is available at 1.53 and Over 3.5 goals at 2.45.
| Line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.30 | 1.63 |
| 3.5 | 1.53 | 2.45 |
Handicap prediction
Sweden (-1.5) at 2.30 is quoted higher than Romania (+1.5) at 1.58. At the handicap line of 1, Sweden (-1) is available at 1.80 and Romania (+1) at 2.00. With a level handicap, Sweden (0) at 1.17 is substantially more favoured than Romania (0) at 4.15.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | -1.5 | |
| 1.5 | 1.58 | |
| 1.80 | -1 | |
| 1 | 2.00 | |
| 1.17 | 0 | 4.15 |
Both teams to score prediction
Both teams to score — Yes is available at 1.72 and is shorter than Both teams to score — No at 2.05; the market is more inclined to expect goals from both teams.
| Both teams to score | Odds |
|---|---|
| Yes | 1.72 |
| No | 2.05 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
7/50
|
9/50
|
163/100
|
| William Hill |
7/50
|
11/50
|
29/20
|
| 888sport |
7/50
|
11/50
|
29/20
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total prediction
For this match, the bookmakers have set the following team totals: Sweden — 2 goals, Romania — 0.5 goals.
Sweden team total
Sweden team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 7.20 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.05; at the 1.5-goal line, the odds are 2.45 and 1.50 respectively. At the line of 2, Under 2 goals is quoted at 1.82 and Over 2 goals at 1.93, while at 2.5, Under 2.5 goals is available at 1.47 and Over 2.5 goals at 2.60.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 7.20 | 0.5 | 1.05 |
| 2.45 | 1.5 | 1.50 |
| 1.82 | 2 | 1.93 |
| 1.47 | 2.5 | 2.60 |
Romania team total
Romania team total: Under 0.5 goals is available at 2.30 and Over 0.5 goals at 1.57. At the line of 1, Under 1 goal is available at 1.55 versus 2.35 for Over 1 goal, while at 1.5 the odds are 1.25 for Under 1.5 goals and 3.45 for Over 1.5 goals.
| Under | Team total | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.30 | 0.5 | 1.57 |
| 1.55 | 1 | 2.35 |
| 1.25 | 1.5 | 3.45 |
