Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett Prediction and Betting Odds

Justin Gaethje and Paddy Pimblett are set to square off for the interim UFC lightweight belt. Their bout takes place on 24 January as the headline event of UFC 324, staged at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, USA.

Below is a breakdown of the odds, predictions, and an exclusive preview for the Justin Gaethje vs Paddy Pimblett fight.

Gaethje to win

9/5

Pimblett to win

1/2

Gaethje vs Pimblett Betting Odds

It is no surprise that, after such a sustained winning streak and that last dominant dismantling of Michael Chandler, bookmakers have nailed their colours firmly to Paddy, pricing the hometown star as their clear favourite. Pimblett is only now entering his true prime, and if you are not backing him at this stage, then when? His victory is currently offered at 1/2

Gaethje vs Pimblett Odds

Even Gaethje’s emphatic stoppage of Rafael Fiziev did little to convince analysts that Justin still firmly belongs in the lightweight top five. At 37, sustaining peak speed and absorbing chaotic exchanges becomes increasingly difficult. That is why Gaethje’s line has drifted to 9/5

Statistics and Physical Data

The pair are virtually identical in height, but Paddy will hold a notable reach advantage.

Justin Gaethje

• Former interim UFC lightweight champion. Former WSOF lightweight champion. Former BMF title holder.

• 31 fights, 26 wins, 5 defeats.

Justin Gaethje to win

Bonus £30

Bet

9/5

In recent years, Justin has been viewed more as a hunter of that elusive BMF strap than a genuine fixture in the championship race at lightweight. He dismantles Dustin Poirier, then loses the belt against Max Holloway, and rather than a sustained run we see a chaotic mix of victories and setbacks. Still, that was enough for Dane White, and now Gaethje gets to sharpen those murderous low kicks specifically for Pimblett.

The American’s core task is to settle into his preferred range as early as possible and draw Paddy into wild pocket trades. Crucially, he cannot repeat Chandler’s mistake of edging forward too long and eating a pile of unnecessary low and mid kicks.

The optimal approach for Justin at close quarters is to catch Pimblett with hooks every time Paddy begins to line up his shot and exposes his chin. This defensive gap has followed the Liverpudlian for three or four fights running, and unless corrected, he risks walking onto a brutal knockout sequence.

Gaethje’s last 5 Fights

Paddy Pimblett

• Former FCC and Cage Warriors featherweight champion. Three-time UFC Performance of the Night recipient. Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

• 26 fights, 23 wins, 3 defeats.

Pimblett to win

Bonus £50

Bet

1/2

Some critics may be shocked to hear it, but Paddy is riding a nine-fight win streak and has yet to lose inside the UFC. Yes, sceptics will note that several of those victories came over fading names such as Tony Ferguson or Bobby Green, but the Brit has proved he is far more than a flashy upstart — he is a highly skilled operator who continues to evolve towards genuine contender level.

The best strategic reply to Gaethje is a steady barrage of low kicks that pressures Justin, forces him into quicker entries and drags him into scrappier clinch battles. Paddy must also rely on a persistent jab from range rather than trying to answer every exchange with doubles.

His problems remain familiar: limited defence during extended combinations, a high chin and a wide punching arc that often prevents him delivering real damage. Should he tidy even part of this, he has every chance of justifying the bookmakers’ faith.

Pimblett’s last 5 Fights

Gaethje vs Pimblett Prediction

The moment news broke about Ilia Topuria taking a hiatus, media and fans immediately began pushing for an interim-title showdown involving Arman Tsarukyan. Yet Dana White, still unhappy about the cancelled bout with Islam Makhachev, openly admitted he did not believe the Armenian deserved an immediate title opportunity.

That leaves Paddy, as the installed favourite, looking to seize the belt and finally force Topuria into accepting a clash. The two have feuded for months, with several hotel corridor altercations already behind them.

However fired up or hungry Pimblett may be, Gaethje is perfectly capable of giving him a torrid night and refusing to allow the Brit to dictate the terms in the way Chandler did. Justin is stronger, more aggressive, cleaner with his hands and, unlike Michael, does not waste energy on redundant movement and bouncing.

Which is why backing Paddy outright feels far from safe, even though he genuinely appeals as a future top contender. A far more attractive and reliable angle is the finish market or the rounds total excluding the early stages. 

Both men have the grit and durability to survive the initial counter-surges through the opening 12 minutes, while the first major cracks are likely to appear closer to the fourth round.

Prediction — Pimblett's victory.

Pimblett's victory

Bet

1/2

Frequently Asked Questions

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