National Team Betting: Odds and Tips

What is the difference between betting on Argentina and on Bayern?

The undeniable Premier League favorite heading into the season—Manchester City—are spiraling downward. Once again, the crowd consensus has faltered. Disillusioned by betting on clubs, many are likely to turn their attention to the national team markets. While predicting trends and picking winners in international matches is often more challenging, we’ll explore some consistent patterns and offer you valuable tips for smarter bets.

Who Will Win the World Cup 2026?

World Cup and Euro

Let’s start with the major tournaments—and perhaps immediately surprise the glory hunters. They’ll need to change their favorites often. The kind of dominance displayed by clubs like Manchester City or Bayern in domestic football is virtually nonexistent in international competitions. The last time a team won back-to-back World Cups was over 60 years ago, and it has only happened twice in history.

It's no coincidence that the reigning champions, Argentina, are only fifth on the list of favorites for the next World Cup.

World Cup 2026 Winner - Argentina

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10/1

Double victories are even rarer at the Euros. Only once has this feat been achieved—by the Spanish juggernaut, which also managed to win a World Cup in between. Interestingly, Spain doesn’t even appear among the betting options for the next Euros.

In truth, the list of favorites is limited to just one country—England. However, betting on them falls squarely into the category of pure fun.

England to Win World Cup 2026 and Euro 2028 - Yes

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If we’re being serious, national teams at major tournaments are about less cohesion and a different dynamic. Opta specialists analyzed statistics over the last five years, and it's not just your imagination—matches at international tournaments do seem to unfold in slow motion.

International teams average more passes per sequence (3.9) than clubs (3.3). Consequently, they’re also slower to progress the ball towards the goal, with a direct speed of just 1.45 meters per second compared to 1.64 for clubs.

Cautious, sometimes overly defensive play has become the hallmark of national teams over the last 20–30 years. Despite attempts to improve entertainment value and boost goal counts—like expanding the number of tournament participants—the trend hasn’t reversed. From 2002 to 2022, 65% of World Cup matches ended with a total under 2.5 goals, and only 20% saw Both Teams to Score (compared to 47% in club competitions).

It’s also important to remember that a month-long tournament isn’t the same as a six-month league season. With accelerated preparations, national teams often start sluggishly, aiming to peak in the knockout rounds. Occasionally, teams like Spain or Italy can bulldoze their way through tournaments without losing momentum (as they did in the last two Euros). But by now, few are shocked when, say, Portugal scrapes through the group stage without a single win, only to claim the trophy, as they did in Euro 2016.

Strong teams that secure early qualification from their group often rotate heavily in the final group match. For instance, Spain swapped out half of their starting XI for their last group game in the most recent Euros. Betting on the “on-paper” favorite in every group-stage match is often a poor strategy when it comes to international tournaments.

Qualifiers, Group Stages, and the Nations League

What about international matches in longer-running competitions? Surprisingly, national teams score more goals in these settings. In short, the class disparity in qualifiers and even in the Nations League group stages often leads to goal-scoring explosions.

Meticulous researchers at Opta have dissected the stats from international matches and the top five European leagues between 2016 and 2021 down to the tiniest details.

Club teams create higher-quality chances, but national teams are more efficient in converting theirs. International sides are better at punishing mistakes, shoot more frequently, and are less prone to errors in critical situations.

However, much of this data is less relevant when it comes to the Nations League playoffs, which resemble World Cup or Euro knockout rounds. These phases are nearly as unpredictable in terms of outrights, which is why the odds remain enticingly high.

UEFA Nations League Winner (League A)