NBA MVP 2024/25 race: chances and predictions

Will Nikola Jokić be the best once again?

The 2024/25 NBA season is in full swing. Some teams are unexpectedly good (like the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks), some are surprisingly bad (like the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves), and some match the experts' expectations. It’s not surprising to witness Oklahoma City Thunder among the leaders of the regular season, just like Portland Trail Blazer’s nightmare with Anfernee Simons’ and Jerami Grant’s poor performance included.

But what about the potential MVP of the season? Who are there real contenders by the end of 2024? Let's find out.

Nikola Jokić to be NBA MVP 24/25

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9/10

NBA MVP 2024-25 Betting Odds

For now, Nikola Jokic is far ahead of everyone. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is keeping up and currently remains one of the most progressed players throughout the season. Giannis Antetokounmpo struggles with the Bucks, but he’s still their leader, just like Doncic at the Mavericks. Tatum’s chances are slim, and he could be easily overtaken in the top of the contenders.

NBA MVP 24/25 Betting Odds

Nikola Jokić 

Caldwell-Pope’s departure and Murray’s bad form affect the Nuggets a lot. Probably, this team wouldn’t even be in the top 6 without Nikola Jokić. Last season’s MVP scores 31,5 points, 9,8 assists and 13,3 rebounds per game. These are the best numbers among the top—10 ESPN season leaders. Oh, by the way, Nikola has his own anthem now, “Sombor Shuffle”. It’s enough for him to remain the best, but almost ineffective for the Nuggets that struggle even more than last season. They are forced to play the style with many two-pointers and passive defence, especially on the arc and pick and rolls.

As it usually happens in movies, an anti-hero will indeed be present if there's a hero. The exact same story goes on in the Nuggets’ squad, where Jamal Murray literally ruins all the balance and often nullifies Jokić’s effort. After 18 games played, Canadian has just 17,9 points per game with 4,1 rebounds included. Former NBA Champion Kendrick ‘Big Perk’ Perkins heavily criticises Murray and sympathises Jokić:

Despite his partners’ struggle, Jokić himself is in his prime. Bookmakers see him as a leading contender for becoming the MVP again. Jokić is on his way to break several NBA records. One of them is a box plus/minus indicator: by mid-December, Jokić has 13,79. If this number holds till the end of the season, Nikola will set a new golden standard.

Jokić to be NBA MVP 24/25

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9/10

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

The Thunder’s strong start is hugely due to Shai Gogleous-Alexander’s top performance at the beginning of the season. After 24 games, he’s averaging 30,2 points, 6,3 assists and 5,4 rebounds per game. SGA is also good in defence: 1,8 steals and 1 block per game. Unlike Jokić and Giannis, he plays in one of the season's best teams. Unlike previously highly rated MVP contender Jayson Tatum, who at the beginning of December was ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander. 

The Thunder’s guard-forward gradually improves his player efficiency rating (PER) and progresses on his three-points. Of course, 2,1 per game (34%) is not the kind of number to brag about, but SGA is already in the top five in this category with 19 three-points. He’s also in top-3 players with a higher free-throw-attempt rate among those who play regularly. SGA is the main factor of being Thunder in the top 10 of points scored per possession.

SGA represents hope for those who wish to prevent Jokić from treating the MVP trophy like a personal pet (this and winning it for the fourth time are quite the same). While Nikola might enjoy this, Shai is determined to challenge him. Fans can only hope he maintains his performance both on the court and during the well-known Thunder group interviews.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to be NBA MVP 2024/2025

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21/10

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Though the Bucks are far away from performing perfectly this season (yet), Giannis still delivers: 32,7 points and 11,5 rebounds, 6,1 assists and 1,6 blocks per game. As usual, the Greek is the best in his team, though in some games it is visible that it may take him too long to make a decision. But it’s not Giannis who’s responsible for the Buck’s worst defence among top-6 (+35 after 25 games). It’s more due to Buck’s rebuilding in the offseason: Jae Crowder, Patrick Beverley, Danilo Gallinari, Thanasis Antetokounmpo and Robin Lopez were allowed to leave the club. Gary Trent Jr, Taurean Prince and Delon Wright. These guys are younger than those who left, but Milwaukee's defence still hasn’t improved.

Previously Giannis mentioned that another MVP trophy is not essential to him, but after turning 30, he declined his words and admitted that he wants the third MVP.

For now, it’s obvious that if Giannis wants another MVP, he needs to perform even better than Jokić, especially considering how the Bucks are struggling in this regular season. But probably winning the NBA Cup with Giannis becoming an MVP of this tournament will cheer them up for the rest of the season.

Giannis Antetokounmpo to be NBA MVP 24/25

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6/1

Luka Dončić

The 2024/25 version of Luka Dončić is definitely not the best, but still enough to be among the MVP contenders, though his chances are much less than the previous three players mentioned. After 20 games, he has 28,9 points, 8,6 rebounds, 8,2 assists per game. In the 23/24 season, these numbers were 33,9 points, 9,2 rebounds and 9,8 assists. Obviously, numbers have dropped. Not severely, though, and that’s precisely why Dončić still can be included in top-5 MVP contenders.

The Mavericks can’t keep up with the Thunder, so Luka is not so lucky as SGA and can’t be called ‘The best player in the best team’. But just like Jokić and Antetokounmpo, he’s undoubtedly the best in his problematic team. But the difference is that Nikola is cooler than ever, Giannis is not so stable but often performs on the MVP level, while Luka regressed in comparison to himself. This is why his chances of winning the trophy are slim. However, bookmakers don’t rate him much lower than Giannis.

Luka Dončić to be NBA MVP 24/25

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7/1

Jayson Tatum

The Celtics’ forward Jayson Tatum would have had bigger chances in the MVP race, but his ineffectiveness from the middle range spoils it all. Tatum has just 32,8% with 58 attempts after 24 games. Jayson is the best in his team (it just couldn’t be otherwise as he is in our selection) with 28,2 points, 9,0 rebounds and 5,6 assists per game. That’s enough to be the Celtics' leader but not enough to be in the top 5 of NBA stats in any component.

But at least the Celtics generally perform better than the Bucks, so Tatum suffers much less and doesn’t have the burden of carrying the whole team on his own, like Giannis or Jokić. Good in terms of chances of winning the regular season, but not the MVP trophy.

Jayson Tatum will become the MVP

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20/1

MVP NBA History

Most Valuable Player is awarded after the vote of 100 sportswriters and broadcasters from the USA and Canada chosen by the NBA. Usually, voters consider these factors:

• Basic stats (points per game, assists per game, rebounds per game);

• Advanced stats (player efficiency rating);

• Successfulness of the team;

• Player’s soft skills (behaviour on and off the court);

• Eye test (style of play, impact on the spectators).

Here are the last 10 NBA MVP winners.