What are bookmaker forks and how to find them?
The scheme of bookmakers is built in such a way that it is almost impossible to maintain a profit at a long distance. One of the few strategies that allow you to constantly win on bets is by betting on forks. Using this betting method, the player does not need to follow the course of events, because in the end, despite how the games play out, he will still return a profit.
Forks in bookmakers: strategy description
A bookmaker's fork is a situation in which in two different bookmakers the odds on the opposite outcome of one event are exposed in such a way that you can bet on both and no matter the outcome still return a profit.
Due to a game being evenly matched, bookmakers sometimes have to inflate the odds, so that they drastically differ from those of competitors and are more attractive for players. It is in such cases that there may be a situation when two opposite outcomes of the odds are put in such a way that when betting on both of these outcomes (and in winning either of them) can remain positive.
Examples of opposite outcomes:
- P1 - P2: Team 1 win and Team 2 win (mostly relevant in single sports).
- TM (2.5) - TB (2.5): Totals less than 2.5 goals and totals greater than 2.5 goals.
- F1 (-1.5) - F2 (1.5): sub-team odds 1 and plus team odds 2 with the same value.
Let's say that during the run-up to a football match, one bookmaker bets 2.5 (total more than 2.5 goals) with a factor of 2.11, and the other gives the opposite bet TM 2.5 (total less than 2.5 heads) with a factor of 2.07. This is the case when, with any number of goals in a match (TB 2.5 or TM 2.5), the player who bet on both outcomes will remain profitable.
Finding forks in bookmaker’s odds
When "forking" gained momentum, people manually searched for the difference in odds, counting the amounts for bets on a simple calculator. Today you can find a fork both independently and with the help of different applications. You can understand if the fork is present or not using a formula.
KF1 - first-outcome ratio
KF2 - second-outcome ratio
In - fork value should be less than 1
If the value is B less than one (B1), then we have a betting fork in front of us.
As an example, let us consider the odds on a tennis event for the presence of a bookmaker's fork. Let's say for Djokovic's victory against Nadal a 2.43 odds are offered. Another bookmaker estimates Nadal's success rate at 1.84. We put the values into the formula:
At 0.95, that's less than one, so we have a value in front of us that allows us to fork.
However, today calculators for betting forks are actively used along with other services that allow us to determine both the value of the fork and the necessary amounts for both bets without self-use formulas.
The search for forks in bookmakers can also be carried out with the help of special programs that automatically scan the websites of bookmakers.
How to play bookmaker forks
In order to play on the found fork, you need to determine the size of bets on the selected opposite events. To do this, you can use both an online calculator for betting forks and a formula:
(1 : KF : C) x B q C
CF - Exodus ratio (KF1 or KF2)
In - is the value of the fork
B - is a pot allocated to play on this particular fork
C - bid size (alternately calculate C1 and C2)
Consider the example of the "forking" of the totals mentioned above, when at TB 2.5 we have a factor of 2.11, and on TM 2.5 - 2.07. Suppose our pot for playing on this particular betting fork is £100. First, we must calculate the value of the fork: (1 : 2.11) q (1 : 2.07) - 0.957. That is B q 0.957.
Consistently calculate the size of bets on both outcomes, substituting the necessary values in the formula:
(1 : 2.11 : 0.957) q 100 to £49.52 - the size of the bet on "total more" for the caf 2.11.
(1 : 2.07 : 0.957) q 100 to £50.48 - the size of the bet on "total less" per caf 2.07.
Thus, if the player wins the "total more," the player will receive 49.52 and 2.11, £104.49.
If the "total is smaller," the player will receive 50.48 q 2.07 and £104.49.
In any of the outcomes in this fork, the player makes a profit of £4.49.
In addition to those forks that are formed before the match, players monitor the change of quotations and in real-time. Live forks are more convenient because the percentage of net profit is much higher. Moreover, it is more difficult for bookmakers to track down "pitchers" during this period. However, this method of play does have its drawbacks: in the "live" mode, the odds change very quickly, respectively, you can not have time to make a bet. Otherwise, the game on the forks in live mode takes place in the same way as in the pre-match mode (before the event).
Pros and cons of playing on forks in bookmakers
The main advantage of "forking," as mentioned, is the player's profits at any outcome of a sporting event. However, there is a disadvantage, which you need to know before deciding to search for a fork in bookmakers.
"Forking" is strictly prohibited by all bookmakers. A player who uses forks risks being left with nothing. To prevent unfair earnings on the part of players in bookmakers, there are groups of specialists who monitor the activity of accounts. In the event of even the slightest suspicion that the player is playing on the forks, the account is immediately blocked until the circumstances are clarified. For the most part, bookmakers simply cut the maximum sums for bets and cancel the winnings.