2026 FIFA World Cup Qualifiers in Europe: Trends and Predictions
After the first play-off matches, the eight finalists in the European World Cup 2026 play-offs have now been confirmed. The winners will book their places in the United States and move into Groups A, B, D and F. It is a favourable draw, given that the main contenders for the World Cup are in other sections.
Who will win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Below, we take a look at the favourites for the decisive matches in the battle for places at the World Cup and pick out the trends worth watching.
Format and Schedule of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Play-Offs in Europe
With the expanded tournament format and the introduction of the UEFA Nations League, places in the final qualifying round were allocated as follows:
-
12 teams that finished second in their qualifying groups;
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4 teams that won their Nations League groups but did not finish in the top two of their World Cup qualifying groups.
It turns out the Nations League does serve a purpose after all, because sides such as North Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina still have a chance to fight for a place at the World Cup. It is worth remembering the Qatar play-offs, when North Macedonia stunned Italy (1:0) before falling short against Portugal.
On the other hand, teams can ease off in standard qualifying and focus on the Nations League instead. Beating minnows such as San Marino and Luxembourg is far easier than going toe to toe with Europe’s elite.
Following the draw, the 16 teams were split into four paths, with one World Cup place at stake in each of them.
The semi-final matches were played on 27 March, while the path finals will take place on 31 March.
Path A: Easy on Paper, but with a Catch
The final of the first path will pit Italy against Bosnia and Herzegovina, unexpectedly. The winners will go into Group B, where Canada, Qatar and Switzerland await.
Who will reach the 2026 World Cup through Path A:
Italy have now put together a second uneven qualifying campaign in a row, and the warning signs are there in every department. What stands out most is the number of chances they waste, 2.3 per game from 3.6 created. The Italians squandered a host of openings against Estonia and Israel, and when they came up against a side with a tenacious midfield and a capable striker, they simply folded.
The match against Northern Ireland was not convincing either. Italy produced a dreadful first half and failed to create a single dangerous moment, only improving after the break. Despite registering 19 shots, the overall threat was minimal, while the team’s xG came in at only 1.63.
The foul count has risen accordingly. Across qualifying, Gennaro Gattuso’s side averaged 9.5 fouls per match, but in both defeats to Norway that number jumped to 12.1. In the semi-final, the Azzurri also came out on top against Northern Ireland in fouls (11:8), and with Bosnia and Herzegovina the most foul-prone team in qualifying at 17.7, the over is well worth a look.
In the semi-final, we saw sterile possession, a huge volume of crosses and plenty of corners. Northern Ireland were happy to give up the ball, and Bosnia and Herzegovina could follow the same pattern after posting only 38 per cent possession against Wales. With that in mind, the visitors’ team total or their handicap in the corners market looks appealing, especially after Italy won 12 corners in the semi-final. Nine corners is priced at
5/4
, which looks generous.
It is difficult for the Balkan side to keep producing miracles in attack. The goals are expected to come from Edin Džeko, now 39, and Haris Tabaković, 31, and the output reflects that. If you put the 6:0 thrashing of San Marino to one side, Bosnia and Herzegovina are averaging only 1.9 big chances created and 1.5 goals scored per game. What they do lead the way in is yellow cards, 2.8 per match, and they underlined that again in the semi-final, winning that count 4:1. That market is hard to ignore. Bosnia and Herzegovina to win on cards against Italy is
7/10
Against Wales, Bosnia and Herzegovina showed admirable resilience, especially late on, when they created several highly dangerous moments. If Italy produce the same lifeless football again, Džeko will have every chance to get one opportunity and become a national hero. Overall, considering the Azzurri’s lack of quality in attack and Bosnia and Herzegovina’s likely approach, this does not look like a final that should produce a high-scoring game.
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs Italy, 31 March
Path B: Potter Magic Away from Hogwarts
The final of the second path will feature Poland against Sweden. The winners will head into a difficult group alongside the Netherlands, Japan and Tunisia.
Who will reach the 2026 World Cup through Path B:
Poland scraped past Albania with great difficulty and produced little of note, creating just one dangerous scoring opportunity and managing only 26 touches in the opposition box. The Eagles competed well in midfield and came out on top in duels and interceptions, but forgot the most important part, converting their chances. Poland also made two errors that led directly to shots, while Kamil Grabara repeatedly had to bail out Jan Bednarek and Jakub Kiwior.
Sweden, after a dreadful qualifying campaign in which they failed to win a single game and showed no clear identity, suddenly remembered how to play football. Graham Potter kept it simple and handed possession to Ukraine, 68 per cent to 32, knowing full well they would not know what to do with it.
Up front, Viktor Gyökeres finally showed that he can produce for the national team. He struck a hat-trick and delivered an outstanding display in attack, leading the line superbly, competing well for the ball in the opposition half and finishing with ruthless efficiency, three shots, three on target, three goals. Another Gyökeres goal is available at
5/4
This final brings together two flawed teams that came through a shaky qualifying cycle and are unlikely to make much noise at the World Cup. Potter will probably give up the ball and the initiative again, trusting Gyökeres to make the difference in attack, which looks a perfectly reasonable plan given the mistakes that continue to come from the Bednarek and Kiwior pairing.
Going heavy on the big markets in this match is not ideal. Nobody knows whether Sweden will keep finishing so well or how Robert Lewandowski will respond after signing his new Barcelona contract. The corners market makes more sense. Poland average 6.3 corners per game, and with Sweden very likely to surrender possession again, that number could rise further in the final. Five corners is priced as high as
9/20
There is also a case for the overall corners total. Sweden have gone over 9.5 corners in four of their last five games, while averaging 5.8 corners per match themselves, and home advantage could also play its part.
Sweden vs Poland, 31 March
Path C: Montella’s Turkish Gambit
In the final of the third path, Turkey will try to reach their first World Cup in 25 years. Standing in their way are Kosovo, unexpectedly, after a wild shootout in their own semi-final.
Who will reach the 2026 World Cup through Path C:
Turkey continue to live up to their reputation as one of UEFA’s most entertaining sides, scoring 2.8 goals per game and conceding 2.1. On the balance of experience and talent, they are clear favourites. Even without a natural out-and-out centre-forward in the squad, Turkey finish their chances with composure, converting at 22 per cent, the seventh-best figure in qualifying.
The semi-final against Romania showed a new, more mature side to this team. Turkey were far from fluent, but still found one moment, took it and saw the game out to victory.
The efforts of Arda Güler, Hakan Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız do not hide the team’s weakness in positional attacking play. Despite dominating possession, 68 per cent to 32, shots, 16:6, and corners, 9:3, Turkey created only one genuinely dangerous chance. On the other hand, Romania have made a habit of slowing games down in qualifying, and the final is likely to follow a different pattern.
Turkey should again dominate at least in possession and corners. The price for them to win the corners count is a generous
7/10
, which looks very attractive given the average numbers, 6.6 against 2.9.
Kosovo averaged only 1.3 big chances created, and almost everything they do going forward is built around the cumbersome 32-year-old Vedat Muriqi. Their result and attacking energy in the semi-final against Slovakia were no less surprising.
That said, Kosovo benefited heavily both in chance creation, with two major Slovak errors, and in finishing. Scoring four times from just two dangerous chances and an xG of 1.56 is an anomaly, not a reflection of the class of Asllani and Hajrizi.
More importantly, taking an open approach against Turkey would amount to a death sentence. Kosovo already struggled with the quality of their passing, managing only 68 per cent accuracy in the semi-final. Knowing how quickly Turkey can launch attacks in two or three touches, Kosovo will have little choice but to sit deeper and hope for luck and for mistakes from the far from reliable Samet Akaydin and Abdülkerim Bardakcı pairing.
Kosovo produced the match of their lives against Slovakia, but repeating that level twice in a row is a huge ask. It is even harder to expect the same finishing and good fortune again.
Kosovo vs Turkey, 31 March
Path D: Denmark on the Road to the World Cup
The final pair will be Denmark and Czechia, battling for a place in Group A alongside Mexico, South Africa and South Korea.
Who will reach the 2026 World Cup through Path D:
The dominant style that Brian Riemer is trying to implement works extremely well against teams that are happy to give up the ball, and Denmark dismantled North Macedonia (4:0) in the semi-final. The Balkan side had absolutely no chance, managing just three shots and none on target.
In the final, the statistics markets are the obvious play, Denmark to win or cover the handicap in possession, corners and shots. Over 4.5 Denmark corners is priced at
47/100
, and Czechia under their new manager can only really be judged on the previous game, in which they conceded nine corners.
Czechia have gone back to shuffling coaches again. At the beginning of December, Miroslav Koubek took charge of the national team. Across a managerial career spanning almost 40 years, he has won only one Czech league title, despite having coached both Viktoria Plzeň and Slavia Prague.
Czechia produced a decent result against the Republic of Ireland, recovering from 0:2 down, but there are still serious questions about the quality of the squad. Vladimír Darida cannot cope in central midfield without protection, while Pavel Šulc, Lyon’s top scorer with 11 goals, has yet to rediscover his form after injury.
On the pre-match numbers, Denmark are deserved favourites and this is not a final that looks likely to deliver a major surprise.
Czechia vs Denmark, 31 March
Denmark Overs and Turkey Goals: Key Trends in the European 2026 FIFA World Cup Play-Offs
Denmark have come flying through qualifying and have been reliably landing on the over. Only their opening match finished without a goal, while every game since has gone over 2.5 goals.
Bets on Over 2.5 in Denmark’s Matches — 2026 and 2022 World Cup Qualifiers (Flat stake — £10)
Games | Under 2,5, % | Profit, £ | ROI, % |
7 | 85 | 39,4 | 56,2 |
Czechia are capable of playing in an open style as well, and the shootout with the Republic of Ireland was proof of that. A repeat of that kind of game is priced as high as
49/50
Turkey also play fearless, high-tempo football, and even Vincenzo Montella, who has slightly toned down the chaos, has not stopped the team from producing entertaining games regularly.
Bets on Both Teams to Score in Turkey’s Matches — 2026 and 2022 World Cup Qualifiers (Flat stake — £10)
Year | Matches | BTTS, % | Profit, £ | ROI, % |
2021 | 11 | 72,3 | 36,6 | 33,2 |
2025 | 7 | 57,4 | 1,5 | 2,1 |
Total | 18 | 64,9 | 38,1 | 17,7 |
It did not quite happen against Romania, as Mircea Lucescu’s side offered nothing in attack and finished the game without a single shot on target. Kosovo look more promising in that respect, with motivation sky-high after their wild match against Slovakia. Both teams to score is available at a solid
17/20
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