Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh Prediction and Betting Odds

Brandon Moreno is set to face Lone’er Kavanagh in a flyweight clash on 28 February at UFC Fight Night 268 at Arena CDMX in Mexico City, Mexico.

Below is a breakdown of the odds, predictions, and an exclusive preview for the Kavanagh vs Moreno fight.

Brandon Moreno to win

9/20

Lone'er Kavanagh to win

7/4

Moreno vs Kavanagh Odds

Bookmakers continue to rate Brandon Moreno among the elite at flyweight. A victory over Lone’er Kavanagh would move him a step closer to another shot at the title, and the backing of a partisan Mexican crowd could provide further motivation. Moreno is priced at 9/20 to get the job done.

Moreno vs Kavanagh Odds

Kavanagh’s last outing showed that while he is a polished striker, he can be caught out by mistakes. He also has significantly fewer professional bouts than Moreno, which could become a telling factor over a potential five-round distance. Kavanagh is available at 7/4 for the win.

Statistics and Physical Data

Moreno has fought more than three times as many professional contests as Kavanagh. He also holds advantages in both height, by seven centimetres, and reach, by eight centimetres.

Brandon Moreno

• Former UFC flyweight champion and the first Mexican-born UFC champion. Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

• 34 fights, 23 wins, 9 defeats, 2 draws.

Brandon Moreno to win

Bonus £30

Bet

9/20

It is hard to believe that not long ago the flyweight division was overlooked, despite boasting genuine stars, with Moreno arguably leading the pack. The defeat to Alexandre Pantoja may have dented his confidence slightly, but overall Brandon remains one of the very best in the weight class.

Moreno is likely to begin patiently, gauging distance with long low kicks. He will look to lean away from incoming shots before firing back with sharp one-two combinations upstairs. If he closes the gap, expect him to mix in takedown attempts.

On the mat, Moreno will prioritise control while methodically searching for openings. Kavanagh will aim to scramble back to his feet quickly, at which point Moreno could look to take the back. Still, the former champion may prefer to conduct much of the contest on the feet, trusting in his boxing fundamentals.

Moreno’s Last 5 Fights

Lone’er Kavanagh

• Enjoyed success in Cage Warriors and earned his UFC contract via Dana White’s Contender Series.

• 10 fights, 9 wins, 1 defeat.

Lone’er Kavanagh to win

Bet

7/4

A bout against a former champion presents a major opportunity to make a statement. Kavanagh has already lost his unbeaten record, so the pressure of protecting a perfect slate is no longer a factor. That said, the setting in Mexico City heavily favours Moreno, who will be desperate not to disappoint his home support.

Kavanagh is expected to focus on attacks from range. After backing Moreno up with probing punches, he may look to unleash a powerful head kick.

In mid-range exchanges, Kavanagh will likely mix low kicks with heavy overhands. He will aim to either knock Moreno out or at least seriously hurt him, aware that going to the judges on foreign soil could be risky.

Kavanagh’s Last 5 Fights

Brandon Moreno vs Lone'er Kavanagh Prediction

Experience and physical advantages lie with Moreno, and his overall skill set remains beyond doubt. Nevertheless, a young and explosive fighter always carries genuine knockout potential against a former champion.

For that reason, Moreno may not be keen to let this one drift. Expect him to punish Kavanagh for every mistake and to look for well-timed, perhaps even unexpected, takedowns. On the ground, Kavanagh’s chances of surviving may be slimmer than in a striking battle.

It would be no surprise if this contest fails to reach the judges’ scorecards. A finish inside the opening three rounds is a realistic scenario, making under 3.5 rounds or fight not to go the distance appealing betting options. Flyweight finishes are notoriously difficult to predict, but given the aggressive striking likely on display, the probability of a stoppage appears higher than that of hearing the final horn.

Prediction: Under 4,5 rounds or fight not to go the distance.

Under 4,5 rounds

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Bet

107/100

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