Europa League Play-offs 2025/26: League Phase Review, Favourites and Key Trends

The Europa League round of 16 will be remembered for the eliminations of two of the three pre-tournament bookmaker favourites, with Olympique Lyonnais and AS Roma both crashing out and heading home empty-handed. Antony is now an obvious contender for the award of the Europa League’s best player, while FC Porto are quietly nurturing hopes of repeating their 2012 triumph. Aston Villa, meanwhile, remain the leading contenders for the title.

2025/26 UEFA Europa League: Who Will Lift the Trophy?

Aston Villa

7/4

Porto

9/2

Betis

5/1

The first legs of the quarter-finals will be played on 9 April, with the return matches scheduled for 16 April.

Let’s have a look at the main favourites ahead of the quarter-finals and highlight the trends worth keeping an eye on.

Europa League Favourites 2025/26

Unai Emery’s Aston Villa remain the standout favourites. The English side finished level on points with Olympique Lyonnais, only trailing on goal difference, 6 against 13. The team underlined their credentials during the league phase, winning seven of eight matches, and then made light work of Lille in the round of 16, progressing 3:0 on aggregate.

FC Porto have climbed into second place in the outright betting after the eliminations of Olympique Lyonnais and AS Roma. They have hit top form in 2026, suffering just one defeat, which came in the Portuguese Cup, opening up a commanding lead in the league and delivering a flawless performance over two legs in the round of 16, where VfB Stuttgart were given virtually no chance.

Real Betis are still battling their away day problems, but for now they have managed to offset them with strong results at home. On top of that, Manuel Pellegrini has come to terms with the fact that his side are unlikely to reach the Champions League through La Liga, so all focus is now on winning the Europa League.

2025/26 Europa League Favourites Odds

Nottingham Forest and Bologna are also in the top five. The English side, despite boasting the most expensive squad left in the competition at 568 million euros, have hardly looked convincing. Had the Danish side spent a little more time working on penalties in training, Nottingham Forest might easily have fallen short of the quarter-finals. The team are being carried by Igor Jesus, who has scored seven goals and whose main objective is to sell himself to Carlo Ancelotti ahead of the World Cup, then secure a move to a club of a higher standing afterwards.

As for Bologna, they have very little to lose. The club are set to miss out even on qualification for the UEFA Conference League, sitting nine points adrift, but at the same time they are in no danger of being dragged into the Serie A relegation battle. They may lack the depth and class to go toe to toe with the elite, but the Italians make up for it with sheer intensity, as Gian Piero Gasperini would no doubt attest.

Real Betis: Away Form Remains Their Achilles’ Heel

Before the first knockout ties, Manuel Pellegrini could not decide where to place the emphasis, pushing for a Champions League place through La Liga or fast tracking a Europa League run that could deliver the first European trophy in the club’s history.

Time has now made the priorities clear. The gap to the Champions League places in La Liga stands at 10 points, while Olympique Lyonnais, potentially the toughest opponent on Real Betis’s side of the bracket, are already out of the Europa League.

The side’s main weakness is their performances on the road. That is clear not only in the Europa League, where they have managed just two wins away from the Estadio Benito Villamarín, but also in the league, where Real Betis have won only four of their 14 away matches.

It is also worth mentioning their issues against Greek clubs, with their last three trips to Greece all ending in defeat. Pellegrini can breathe a little easier now, because there will be no more meetings with Greek opposition this season. Instead, Braga stand in their way, and the Portuguese side have been the strongest home team in the 2025/26 Europa League.

It is also worth keeping an eye on Real Betis in the corners market. Although Pellegrini makes active use of the flanks, both Antony Matheus and Abde Ezzalzouli inevitably drift inside. That helps explain the relatively low number of corners, just 3.9 per game. Looking at their team total under, or backing their opponents to win the corners count, looks a very smart angle.

If Real Betis can keep Braga in check at home, their chances of reaching the final will look strong. After the elimination of Olympique Lyonnais, they are more than capable of dealing with both SC Freiburg and RC Celta de Vigo.

Real Betis to win the 2025/26 Europa League

Bet

11/2

FC Porto: Flashbacks to the Villas-Boas Era

FC Porto could become the first club from outside Europe’s top five leagues to lift a major UEFA trophy since 2012. There is an intriguing parallel here, because it was Porto themselves who did it back then under André Villas-Boas, who is now the club’s president.

That, though, is where the similarities end. Francesco Farioli’s side have little in common with the legendary Porto team of Radamel Falcao, Hulk and James Rodríguez. This season, the Portuguese club are not even in the top 10 for chances created, averaging just 2.5 per match, and they have scored only 17 goals in 10 games.

Farioli has made pragmatism the cornerstone of this team, and that is reflected clearly in their pattern of play: score in the first half, surrender possession, then manage the game through to the final whistle. That is how most of their matches against evenly matched opponents have unfolded. Given that the overall approach is unlikely to change, the first half goals market looks particularly solid, with the team scoring 65% of their goals in the opening 45 minutes.

The manager’s pragmatism should not be viewed as a weakness. FC Porto may give up possession, but they shut down the key spaces and allow opponents very little room to create chances. That also explains one notable trend, the team have conceded the fewest corners in the second half, at just 0.89 per game. For punters who like niche markets, that is well worth a look.

If they can keep Igor Jesus quiet, FC Porto have every chance of reaching the semi-finals, where Aston Villa would most likely provide the ultimate test. After their setbacks in the Premier League, Unai Emery is expected to throw everything at this competition, which leaves FC Porto with only slim chances even of making the final.

FC Porto to win the 2025/26 Europa League

Bet

9/2

Aston Villa: A Fifth Europa League for Emery?

Unai Emery knows all about squad limitations. Last season Aston Villa went toe to toe with Paris Saint-Germain in the Champions League quarter-finals yet missed out on a top-four Premier League finish. Now they are closing in on their first European silverware since the 1980s, while Emery eyes a fifth Europa League title.

With the competition reform removing the drop-down effect from the Champions League, half the battle is already won. The league phase was navigated confidently, aside from a 1:2 defeat to Go Ahead Eagles, a night where the ball simply refused to go in. Aston Villa scored once from 2.82 xG and six clear opportunities.

Emery rotated smartly. Donyell Malen netted three times, while Georges Mikautadze added two. Marco Bizot may not be Premier League level, but in Europe he has been outstanding, averaging 6.5 saves per match. Should Ollie Watkins rediscover his scoring touch, 9 goals in 42 appearances this season is below expectations, Aston Villa arguably possess the most balanced squad in the competition.

Aston Villa look the team to beat, and Emery the man poised to write another chapter in both club and tournament history.

Aston Villa to win the 2025/26 Europa League

Bonus £50

Bet

7/4

UEFA Europa League Quarter-Final Draw

After the round of 16 ties, the quarter-final matchups are now confirmed.

2025/26 UEFA Europa League Quarter-Final Fixtures 

11/5 Bologna — Aston Villa 7/20

29/25 SC Freiburg — RC Celta de Vigo 63/100

81/50 Braga — Real Betis 11/25

24/25 FC Porto vs Nottingham Forest 21/25

The path is not getting any easier for Aston Villa. The tournament favourites will first have to find a way past a Bologna team that leaves everything out on the pitch, while the semi-final has every chance of becoming the hidden final, with Aston Villa set to face either FC Porto or Nottingham Forest.

The other side of the bracket looks far more favourable. After Olympique Lyonnais were knocked out, Real Betis, as one of the leading contenders, now only need to withstand Braga’s home pressure before a potential semi-final against either RC Celta de Vigo or SC Freiburg.

What to Back in the Play-offs: Trends and Takeaways from the League Phase

1. Geographic Balance. The English Spanish balance remains intact in the Europa League as well, with two English clubs and two Spanish clubs in the quarter-finals. Two Portuguese sides have also forced their way into the final eight, while Germany and Italy are underrepresented with one team each. Even though Aston Villa are still the favourites to win the tournament, calling the country of the eventual winners is far from straightforward.

2. Home Comforts Still Matter. Even if we set aside the traditionally formidable home sides from Central Europe such as Red Star Belgrade, Ludogorets Razgrad and PAOK, the percentage of home victories remains notably high this season. Aston Villa won all five matches. Even the fearless FC Midtjylland took a flawless 12 points from 12 at MCH Arena in the league phase.

Percentage of Home Wins in the Europa League (2022–2025)

*League phase and round of 16 only.

Sporting Braga continued the trend, beating Feyenoord, Red Star Belgrade and Nottingham Forest at home, with strong domestic European form stretching back to last season.

Home Wins in Sporting Braga Home Matches — UEFA Europa League since 2024/25 (flat stake — £100)

*League phase and round of 16 only.

In the quarter-finals, Braga will play the first leg at home. Given that Real Betis have hardly looked convincing on their travels, with the 1:0 defeat in Greece a clear reminder, backing the home side at 141/100 looks a promising option. For a safer angle, Braga draw no bet at 39/50 also stands out as a solid choice.

3. Goals Flow in the Europa League. The average goals total in the 2025/26 Europa League stands at 2.67 per game. It may not match the recent Champions League averages above three, but it is far from cagey. Celta Vigo stand out, having gone over 2.5 goals in eight of ten matches.  

Over 2.5 Goals in Celta Vigo Matches — 2025/26 UEFA Europa League  (flat stake — £100)

In the first leg of the quarter-final, RC Celta de Vigo will face SC Freiburg, who have finally found their scoring touch and put five past Genk. As long as there are no early red cards to ruin the contest, over looks the obvious play at 26/25

Read more: