Predictions and Scenarios for the 2025/26 Europa League Final
As expected, Aston Villa have reached the Europa League final after coming through the entire knockout stage with real authority. The leading teams from the opposite side of the draw fell one after another, and the English side will face SC Freiburg, who are preparing for the first European final in their history.
Who will win the 2025/26 Europa League?
Emery is one step away from writing his name into the history of both the tournament and Aston Villa, while the German club have already exceeded all expectations. Here are the key factors to consider ahead of the final.
Backing the English Side Is the Best Option for the Europa League Final
1. English clubs have won four of the last six finals. Backing a Premier League club in the Europa League showpiece has become close to a guarantee of success. Since the UEFA Cup became the Europa League, English sides have lost only twice:
-
Season 2015/16: Jurgen Klopp was still trying to work out how to win with Simon Mignolet, Daniel Sturridge and Adam Lallana in the team, and Liverpool suffered a logical 1:3 defeat to Emery’s Sevilla.
-
Season 2009/10: Fulham made a surprise run to the final in the best season of Bobby Zamora and Zoltan Gera’s careers, where they lost 1:2 to Atletico Madrid, with David de Gea on the line and a young Sergio Aguero leading the attack.
There were also all English finals in the 2018/19 and 2024/25 Europa League campaigns, so backing English wins is statistically justified. Since the 2009/10 season, this angle has delivered six flat stakes of profit and a 100% ROI.
SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa, 20 May
2. Unai Emery in a final means BTTS is worth a look. The Europa League specialist has now taken his teams to the final for a sixth time, and five of those matches featured goals at both ends. In recent years, the Europa League has lacked consistency for over/under and BTTS markets, but with the Spaniard involved in a final, the chances of this angle landing increase.
A difficult Premier League situation also points towards both teams scoring in the upcoming final. Aston Villa only secured their place in next season’s Champions League in the 37th round. Emery has still not mastered playing on several fronts, and that always tends to show at the end of the season through goals conceded and final results.
SC Freiburg should not be overrated, but they certainly have nothing to lose. In that context, BTTS at
19/20
looks very appealing.
Backing First-Half Goals?
The final will be the first meeting in history between the two teams, so there is no head to head narrative to rely on. German versus English finals have also been rare overall, with the last one coming all the way back in 1973 between Liverpool and Borussia Mönchengladbach.
SC Freiburg have looked like two completely different sides between the league phase and the knockout stage. Across their first eight matches, they played cautiously and defended superbly, conceding only four goals and allowing opponents very few chances.
In the knockout matches, Julian Schuster switched to a more attacking approach. SC Freiburg became freer in attack, their number of shots rose sharply from 10.5 to 13.6, and their chances increased from 1.7 to 2.1. The downside of that style is more space in defence, which explains the frequent first half overs.
First-Half Over 1.5 Bets in Freiburg’s 2025/26 Europa League Knockout Matches (Flat Stake — £10)
Matches |
Over 1,5, % |
Profit, £ |
ROI, % |
6 |
83,3 |
91,3 |
152 |
A remarkable 150% ROI and Schuster’s comments that SC Freiburg will play their football from the first minute provide the perfect backdrop for an entertaining watch. Over 1.5 goals in the first half of the final is priced at a huge
2/1
while the more cautious route is over 1 goal at a solid
9/10
Aston Villa are moving confidently towards their first European trophy since the 1980s, while Emery is chasing a fifth Europa League title.
After the reform, Emery no longer had to worry about Champions League heavyweights dropping into the knockout stage, which solved half the problem. The eliminations of potentially awkward opponents such as FC Porto and AS Roma also helped, so Aston Villa’s status as favourites is completely understandable and logical.
At the same time, the club look comfortable with that status. Aston Villa play like a team in control, and the only upset came against Go Ahead Eagles, when they lost 1:2. That Dutch evening was one of the rare occasions when the ball simply would not go in for the English side, with just one goal from 2.82 xG and six big chances.
Twelve wins in 14 matches is the most convincing Europa League run Emery has ever produced in his career. Much of that comes down to the way the team have learned to raise their level after half time, sometimes killing the contest, sometimes turning the game around.
Second-Half Aston Villa Win Bets in the 2025/26 Europa League (Flat Stake — £10)
Matches |
Home Wins, % |
Profit, £ |
ROI, % |
14 |
64,3 |
51,9 |
37 |
Aston Villa to win the second half of the final is priced at
19/20
How the Favourites Changed During the 2025/26 Europa League Knockout Stage
Even before the start of the season, bookmakers were confident that Aston Villa were the main contenders to win the competition, while their odds to reach the final were 3.50.
Europa League Winner Odds Before the Start of the Campaign
Team |
Odds |
Aston Villa |
7.00 |
AS Roma |
10.00 |
Bologna |
11.00 |
The league phase strengthened that impression, with the price on Emery’s side almost halving. AS Roma and Olympique Lyonnais were also given a fair amount of trust. The French side showed their class by sharing first place with Aston Villa, while the faith in Gian Piero Gasperini was harder to understand, as the Italian club laboured their way into the top eight.
Europa League Winner Odds Ahead of the Knockout Stage
Team |
Odds |
Aston Villa |
3.75 |
AS Roma |
8.00 |
Olympique Lyonnais |
10.00 |
Aston Villa never lost top spot in the outright betting, and even after defeat in the first leg of the semi-final, bookmakers still believed in the English side. Emery justified that confidence.
It was far more interesting to follow the rest of the top three contenders. One leading side after another fell out of the tournament, with AS Roma, FC Porto, Real Betis and Nottingham Forest all being eliminated. At one point, even SC Braga were in contention to reach the final.
Outright Odds for the Finalists During the Tournament
It was difficult to imagine SC Freiburg reaching the Europa League final. Before the start of the season, that scenario looked fanciful. The German side only entered the top three favourites after Real Betis were knocked out, when the pre match market clearly gave them the edge over SC Braga.
Freiburg Outright Odds to Win the Europa League
Before the start of the campaign |
Before the knockout stage |
Before the quarter-finals |
Before the semi-finals |
Before the final |
25.00 |
15.00 |
10.00 |
5.00 |
3.20 |
Aston Villa, meanwhile, kept confirming their status and never once lost their place as the bookmakers’ tournament favourites.
Aston Villa Outright Odds to Win the Europa League
Before the start of the campaign |
Before the knockout stage |
Before the quarter-finals |
Before the semi-finals |
Before the final |
7.00 |
3.75 |
2.75 |
1.95 |
1.35 |
2025/26 Europa League Final Prediction
It is hard to see Emery missing the chance to make history, as everything has fallen into place for a title push: the eliminations of major contenders, no serious injury problems and an inexperienced final opponent who, at times, looks very beatable.
SC Freiburg have been fortunate to get this far to some extent, not least because they had a more favourable route through the draw. That said, Julian Schuster and his players deserve credit. The German side improved sharply in attack during the knockout matches and did not shrink after defeats in the first legs of the round of 16 and semi final.
However strong Aston Villa have been, SC Freiburg do not deserve to lose without scoring, as happened to the last Bundesliga side in a Europa League final, Alonso’s unbeaten Bayer Leverkusen. On the other hand, there is too big a gap in quality between the teams, and Schuster does not look like a manager capable of outmanoeuvring Emery tactically.
SC Freiburg vs Aston Villa, 20 May
Read more:
