Ice Hockey at the Milan 2026 Olympics: Betting and Predictions

The Olympic ice hockey tournament will take place from 11 to 22 February 2026. All matches will be played at two venues in Milan: PalaItalia and Fiera Milano. The key difference between the 2026 Games and previous editions is that, for the first time since 2014, NHL players will be allowed to participate, a factor that has had a direct impact on bookmakers’ odds for the favourites.

Who will win the Ice Hockey Tournament at the 2026 Olympics?

Canada

23/20

United States

39/20

Sweden

11/2

Due to Russia being barred from the Olympic Games, their place in the tournament was taken by France. Tournament hosts Italy also qualified directly for the final stage without going through qualification.

Let’s break down the main contenders, look at the group scenarios, and highlight the key trends worth keeping an eye on.

Main favourites for Olympic gold in 2026

With Russia absent and an agreement reached with the NHL, Canada and the United States are clear favourites for the upcoming Olympics. Canada last won Olympic gold in 2014, the most recent Games in which NHL players were allowed to take part. In 2018 and 2022, the federations failed to reach an agreement.

2026 Olympic Ice Hockey Favourites Odds

The United States are firmly targeting their first Olympic medals since 2010, when they claimed silver. Given the level of opposition and a relatively straightforward group, the Americans are expected to face their real test only once the play-offs begin.

Sweden sit third in the bookmakers’ odds. The team have dipped slightly in performance in recent years but did manage to secure bronze at the 2025 World Championship.

By contrast, bookmakers show little faith in Finland, the reigning Olympic champions from 2022. This is largely due to a tough group that includes Sweden. To a great extent, both teams’ chances of reaching the final will hinge on their head-to-head meeting in the group stage.

Format of the 2026 Olympic ice hockey tournament

Twelve teams are divided into three groups.

During the group stage, each team plays the others once. The three group winners qualify directly for the quarter-finals, along with the best second-placed team. All remaining teams contest an additional qualification round for the play-offs.

Group standings and overall rankings are determined by the following criteria, in order of priority:

• Points;

• Head-to-head results;

• Goal difference;

• Goals scored;

• IIHF world ranking position at the end of 2025.

Schedule for the 2026 Olympic ice hockey tournament:

• Group stage. 11-15 February;

• Additional qualification round. 17 February;

• Quarter-finals. 18 February;

• Semi-finals. 20 February;

• Bronze medal match. 21 February;

• Final. 22 February.

Group A: Canada chasing their first gold since 2014

Canada are the clear favourites in Group A, which comes as no surprise given the squad’s quality and ambition. The roster includes elite stars such as Nathan MacKinnon and Jack Eichel, while legendary captain Sidney Crosby has also made the final shortlist. He is the only player remaining from the gold-winning 2014 team.

The battle for second place should be contested between the Czech Republic and Switzerland. Matches against Canada will be crucial for both, as will games against group outsiders France, where goal difference could prove decisive.

France’s chances look close to non-existent. This group could have been labelled a group of death had Russia been involved, but the traditional Olympic rivalry between the two hockey superpowers is postponed until at least 2030.

Group B: a northern showdown for play-off places

This is arguably the most intriguing group in terms of the fight for top spot. Bookmakers rate Sweden as favourites, but there are question marks over the squad. First-choice goaltender Linus Ullmark has stepped away from hockey indefinitely for personal reasons, while William Karlsson, Viktor Arvidsson and Gustav Nyquist were not selected.

Against that backdrop, Finland are well worth watching. Led by Mikko Rantanen and Sebastian Aho, they will look to repeat their 2022 triumph. Notably, from that gold-winning squad, only Mikko Lehtonen remains.

Slovakia can boast bronze from the 2022 Olympics, having thrashed Sweden 4:0 in the third-place match. That said, Sweden and Finland will both be significantly strengthened this time by the inclusion of NHL players.

Italy’s prospects of picking up points appear virtually zero. They are rated as the biggest outsiders of the entire tournament, with their best-ever Olympic finish being fourth place back in 1953.

Group C: a straightforward path for the United States

For the United States, a place in the quarter-finals looks almost guaranteed. They arrive in Milan as reigning world champions after defeating Switzerland 1:0 in the final.

The Americans will bring a star-studded lineup, including the Hughes brothers, Matthew and Brady Tkachuk, while Connor Hellebuyck is set to be the starting goaltender. The United States have won seven matches in a row and, over the past five years, have beaten each of their group opponents multiple times: three wins apiece over Denmark and Latvia, and eight victories against Germany.

Germany have been inconsistent in recent years but have still delivered notable results, including silver at the 2018 Olympics and the 2023 World Championship. The squad will feature nine NHL players, with particular attention on forwards John-Jason Peterka and Tim Stützle.

Latvia and Denmark have only slim chances of competing even for second place. They might have been able to challenge Germany without NHL players in the mix, but under current conditions both teams are expected to be eliminated at an early stage.

Long-term bets and key trends at the 2026 Olympics

Ahead of the Games, several trends stand out as particularly interesting to monitor throughout the tournament.

The United States’ attacking output at recent Olympics is striking. Only at the 2018 Games did their average goals scored drop below three per match:

• 2022 Olympics: 4.25;

• 2018 Olympics: 2.20;

• 2014 Olympics: 3.33;

• 2010 Olympics: 4.00.

With NHL stars available and the level of opposition in the group, the Americans can once again be expected to average around four goals per game. Over 5.5 goals in their opening match against Latvia is priced at 11/25

From a long-term perspective, it is also worth considering total goals across the group stage. The United States were the tournament’s top scorers in 2022 (15 goals), 2014 (15), and 2010 (15).

Team with the most goals in the group stage — United States

Bonus £30

Bet

7/4

High-scoring matches can also be found in Finland’s games. Their group-stage results in three of the last four Olympics show a clear pattern: the first two matches tend to be high-scoring, with at least five goals in seven of eight cases, while the third match is usually low-scoring.

Finland’s group-stage results at the last four Olympics

This trend was broken only at the 2022 Olympics, when Finland unexpectedly played a low-scoring second group match before going over the total again in the third. In Beijing, Finland also avoided defeat in their final group game and ultimately went on to win the tournament.

Over 5 goals in Finland’s opening match against Slovakia is priced

Bonus £20

Bet

17/25

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