What to expect from English clubs in the 2025/26 Champions League

After five rounds of the league phase all six English clubs sit inside the play-off positions. Arsenal and Chelsea are currently on course to move straight into the round of 16, while the others occupy spots leading into the round of 32.

Arsenal, unbeaten and perfect so far, are clear tournament favourites with a solid margin over Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain.

Who will win the Champions League 2025/26?

We break down the prospects of the Premier League clubs in this season’s Champions League: who can challenge for the title, who can make noise in the knockouts and who risks crashing out early.

Arsenal

Overall stage position: 1st

Points: 15

The London club are the only team to win all five matches of the main phase. And it is not as if Arsenal got lucky with the schedule: they beat Bayern Munich (3:1), Atletico Madrid (4:0) and Athletic Bilbao (2:0) away from home.

Arsenal’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

Arsenal should handle their assignments against the Belgian and Kazakh sides comfortably, with the trip to Italy the only potential stumbling block. Inter Milan have seven wins in nine home matches this season, but they have yet to face a top opponent in Europe and were beaten by AC Milan in Serie A, the only top-level rival they have met.

Given their three-point cushion and a favourable run-in, Arsenal should reach the knockouts from top spot.

Predicting their spring form is difficult, yet right now Arsenal look the outstanding team of the autumn and the main contender for the Champions League trophy.

They have the best defence in Europe. Mikels Arteta has drilled an aggressive pressing game with tight man-marking and it functions impeccably, even against giants like Bayern Munich. The numbers underline it: one goal conceded in five Champions League games and six conceded in 12 Premier League matches.

Arsenal’s attack has looked just as sharp:

• their rapid wide players punish opponents who like to dominate possession and push high up the pitch, hitting them in rapid counters;
• their creative midfield unlocks low blocks with precision;
• set pieces have become a real weapon — 1.22 of their 3.11 xG against Bayern Munich was generated from free kicks and corners.

If nothing breaks in Arteta’s tactical structure by spring, Arsenal should take the first Champions League title in the club’s history.

Chelsea

Overall stage position: 7th

Points: 10

Had it not been for the slip-up in the away match against Qarabag (2:2), Chelsea would have practically secured a direct passage into the round of 16 after matchday five. Their main issue this season is inconsistency. They can beat Barcelona or Liverpool on a good night, yet drop points against Brighton & Hove Albion or again against Qarabag.

Chelsea’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

Chelsea have a favourable calendar: two trips to Italy and a home game against Pafos, and the team will be strong favourites in each. They have every chance of finishing inside the top eight.

The knockouts, however, pose a bigger challenge. There are several clubs who would leave Chelsea no chance over two legs — Arsenal, Bayern Munich with arguably the best attack in the world, and the balanced Paris Saint-Germain.

Manchester City

Overall stage position: 9th

Points: 10

The defeat to Bayer Leverkusen in matchday five made Manchester City’s task of finishing inside the top eight considerably tougher, and the blame lies with Pep Guardiola’s decision to rotate heavily. It is difficult to grasp why he chose this match for such changes. A Premier League meeting with Leeds United was next on the calendar, a far more suitable game for resting key men.

Their next Champions League fixture is a trip to Real Madrid, and judging by Manchester City’s current level there is no certainty they can handle Galatasaray at home either. Most of their direct competitors have a significantly kinder run-in, which makes the 2.10 on the team qualifying for the knockouts from outside the top eight look like value.

Manchester City’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

Bookmakers still price Manchester City as fifth favourites to win the tournament, which feels generous. They have misfired in the last two transfer windows, and Guardiola’s ideas without elite central-midfield profiles are simply no longer functioning.

Unless they strengthen in the winter window, Manchester City look set for a trophy-less season, including on the European stage.

Newcastle United

Overall stage position: 11th

Points: 9

Only three points separate Newcastle United from 25th place, and with away trips to Leverkusen and Paris ahead, they could become the only English club facing real play-off jeopardy.

Newcastle United’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

The team are in a deep crisis with no immediate way out. Before the defeat to Olympique Marseille, European success and a top-eight finish in the main phase looked like their way to salvage the season.

Now they must beat PSV Eindhoven at home — that alone would be enough to reach the play-offs. But considering that the Danes recently dismantled Liverpool, Newcastle fans have every reason to feel nervous.

Liverpool

Overall stage position: 13th

Points: 9

After the defeat to PSV Eindhoven, bookmakers began doubting Liverpool’s ability to go straight into the round of 16 — the price drifted all the way to 2.10. Given their shaky performances and the upcoming away fixtures against Inter Milan and Olympique Marseille, that number might still be a touch short.

Liverpool’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

Arne Slot cannot fit his personnel into a structure that produces the patterns he wants, nor use players in positions that suit them. Florian Wirtz constantly shifts roles and is offering well below half the output he delivered at Bayer Leverkusen, while Milos Kerkez — arguably the club’s biggest transfer miss in recent years — is being forced to operate as a third centre-back despite being naturally attack-minded.

Everything points to Slot leaving soon. Yet it is not guaranteed that a new manager will succeed where the Dutchman has struggled — organising a forward line stacked with stars. A way out of the crisis is not yet in sight.

Tottenham Hotspur

Overall stage position: 16th

Points: 8

Tottenham Hotspur sit only two points outside the top eight with a very manageable calendar ahead. True, they have only one win in their last five matches, but the quality of opposition must be taken into account. Heavy defeats to Arsenal and Paris Saint-Germain are not decisive, and a draw with the current Manchester United side is perfectly respectable.

Tottenham Hotspur’s remaining fixtures in the 2025/26 Champions League league phase

Despite being the lowest-ranked English side in the league phase right now, their chances of finishing inside the top eight look better than those of the struggling Newcastle United and Liverpool, who were less fortunate with their final-round opponents.

Slavia Prague at home should be close to a guaranteed win. The Czech side have collected only four points away from home in the Champions League since 2020 — beating Union Berlin in 2024 and earning a draw against Atalanta in the current campaign. Borussia Dortmund at home is a winnable fight, and Eintracht Frankfurt have not impressed this season.

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