Unai Emery's High Flying Birds

One of the standout Premier League stories of recent years has been Aston Villa turning into a regular top-three contender and a UEFA Champions League side. With Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Chelsea all stalling, Unai Emery’s men were seen as one of the league’s frontrunners before kick-off, and right now they sit third in the outright market.

Premier League 2025/26 winner:

Arsenal

1/5

Manchester City

333/100

Aston Villa

33/1

After a club-record 11-match winning run in all competitions, stretching from November through to New Year’s Eve, Aston Villa are level with Manchester City in second place on 43 points and have already secured a place in the Europa League knockout phase.

So how has Emery turned a mid-table side into genuine silverware contenders, how much has the dip from the traditional heavyweights helped, and what is realistically on the cards for Aston Villa by the end of this campaign?

Emery masterclass or perfect timing: the 2024/25 comparison

The 2024/25 Premier League season ended disappointingly for Aston Villa as they finished sixth, slipping out of the UEFA Champions League places, which many saw as a failure. The team could not truly take the fight to the elite, and they too often dropped points against mid-table opponents.

At the same time, the club made serious noise in Europe in their first continental campaign since 1982. Emery guided Villa through the league phase, dealt with Club Brugge in the round of 32 (3:1, 3:0), and came within a whisker of extra-time against the eventual Champions League winners Paris Saint-Germain (1:3, 3:2).

Those high-intensity Champions League nights were a key reason for frequent Premier League slip-ups last season. Unlike his counterparts at the richest clubs, Emery has a more limited squad, and the bench is nowhere near the level of a Manchester City.

The major difference between 2024/25 and 2025/26 is resource availability and the absence of Champions League football. This season Villa have stayed true to their identity, continuing to develop Emery’s ideas, and it shows in the numbers.

2024/25 vs 2025/26 metrics

The eye-catcher is the errors being cut in half and the goals significantly outstripping the xG. Defensive issues have been soothed by the Boubacar Kamara–Youri Tielemans holding partnership and replacing Pau Torres with Victor Lindelöf.

That goals-over-xG skew is a familiar feature among top sides, and it is often decisive over a long season, when even off-colour performances still end with three points.

xG of Premier League winners (2022-2025)

Another key point is that despite losing Champions League revenue, Aston Villa have been able to widen the squad via loans and returns.

Arrivals:

• Evan Guessand (OGC Nice);

• Victor Lindelöf (Manchester United, loan);

• Harvey Elliott (Liverpool, loan);

• Marco Bizot (FC Metz);

• Jadon Sancho (Manchester United, loan).

Returned from loan:

• Emiliano Buendía (Bayer Leverkusen).

The calibre of those deals might not scream blockbuster, but Emery is squeezing value out of the resources he has to raise the level from the bench. And unlike the Champions League, rotation in the Europa League is far more manageable.

The final ingredient has been the drop-off among the big guns. In 2025/26, stagnation has hit Liverpool, Chelsea and Manchester City, who were viewed as the main medal contenders before the season began.

Manchester United, Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United remain erratic, and in that context Aston Villa and Arsenal have looked like the only genuine top sides avoiding a deep tactical slump.

My home is my fortress: Villa Park

The biggest driver of Aston Villa’s success is their home form. They have the best home win percentage of any club across Europe’s top five leagues.

Home win percentage since 1 January 2025

Aston Villa have not eased off in 2025/26. After a 0:0 draw with Newcastle United on the opening weekend and a 0:3 defeat to Crystal Palace in the third match, they have won all eight subsequent home league games, including against Arsenal, Manchester City and Manchester United.

Their first home victim of 2026 was Nottingham Forest (3:1). Beating Sean Dyche’s side mattered not only for reasserting Villa’s second-half ambitions after a 1:4 loss to Arsenal, but also for reinforcing the point that Villa Park is a genuine fortress.

Next up at Villa Park is Everton, who are yet to win in the new year. Emery has a golden chance to extend the home winning streak to 12 matches in all competitions.

Aston Villa vs Everton, 18 January

Aston Villa to win

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67/100

Aston Villa’s Premier League outlook

With the current landscape, Villa can keep a theoretical title chance alive deep into the spring. The gap to fourth-placed Liverpool is healthy, and given Arne Slot’s side’s inconsistency, further dropped points feel likely.

Arsenal are not flawless either. They could wobble in the spring and unexpectedly leak points, as they did against Sunderland (2:2) and Chelsea (1:1). Particular attention will fall on their match against Manchester City, scheduled for 18 April.

Unlike their main rivals, Villa are not involved in the Champions League, which allows them to capitalise on mistakes from competitors around the demands of elite European knockout ties. And Villa have already shown they can land punches, beating Arsenal (2:1) and Manchester City (1:0) head-to-head.

There is also a small fixture-list advantage at home: Villa have nine league games at Villa Park and eight away. The most daunting trips include Newcastle United at St James’ Park in late January, Manchester United at Old Trafford in mid-March, and potentially a season-defining final-day clash with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium.

The biggest Villa Park nights still to come include Chelsea in early March and Liverpool in the penultimate round. Either way, the closing weeks look like the true exam for Emery’s side, whether the chase is for the title or simply a Champions League place.

Key Premier League fixtures for Aston Villa

Beyond the calendar, keep an eye on potential January additions. Villa have lost some financial muscle by missing out on the Champions League, but reports suggest the owners are ready to back Emery and provide funds to strengthen in winter.

The story gaining traction in recent days is Omar Marmoush potentially leaving Manchester City, with Aston Villa strongly interested in the Egyptian forward. He has lost his place in the City side after a decent end to last season, starting only twice.

It is unclear whether City would be willing to strengthen a direct top-three rival, and whether any deal would be a loan with an option to buy or a permanent move. On the other hand, Marmoush is unlikely to welcome the arrival of Antoine Semenyo in the squad, while options like inconsistent Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United look less appealing.

Omar Marmoush’s next club

There is also talk of potential moves for Santiago Castro from Bologna, Julian Brandt from Borussia Dortmund, and Nathan De Cat from RSC Anderlecht.

Regardless of any winter business, Villa have a strong chance of hanging onto a top-four finish for a few clear reasons:

• Champions League knockout phase: elite clubs often drop points around do-or-die European ties, while Villa’s Europa League schedule features lower-calibre opposition;

• Home form: nine remaining home games offer a clear opportunity to make up for their struggles on the road

• The biggest tests come late: Newcastle United, Chelsea and Manchester United are still inconsistent, and the defining stretch is likely to be the run-in.

Premier League 2025/26 top 4 finish: Aston Villa

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11/50

In a more fantasy-leaning scenario, Villa could even push for second if Manchester City keep shedding points or go deep in the Champions League.

Premier League 2025/26 top 2 finish: Aston Villa

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Bet

17/4

Aston Villa’s European outlook

Not being in the Champions League has clearly helped Villa this season, and they have spent far fewer resources in Europe, given the general level of opposition in the Europa League. Aston Villa are the outright favourites to win the tournament.

Europa League 2025/26 winner: Aston Villa

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9/4

With 15 points, the club sit top of the overall standings after six rounds alongside Olympique Lyonnais and FC Midtjylland. Villa still have an away trip to Fenerbahçe and a home match against FC Salzburg, and given the current form of both opponents, the English side are unlikely to drop out of the top eight.

It is also worth remembering that the Europa League is Emery’s competition. The Spaniard is the record-holder for trophies, winning three straight with Sevilla (2014, 2015, 2016) and lifting it again with Villarreal (2021).

The Premier League is undoubtedly the priority, but the prospect of a first major trophy since 1996 is a powerful pull. Another advantage is the format change: Champions League clubs no longer drop into the Europa League knockouts, which eases the path for the favourites.

Among Villa’s key rivals right now are Olympique Lyonnais, FC Porto, AS Roma and Nottingham Forest. Given Nottingham Forest and AS Roma both have fairly limited depth and uncertain domestic situations, the French and Portuguese sides feel like the most serious threats.

All told, it is hard to shake the sense that Aston Villa have every chance of ending the season with the Europa League trophy, which would be a fifth for Unai Emery.

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