What to bet on at Australian Open 2026
The 2025 season on the men’s tour was defined by the total dominance of Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. The pair fought it out for the world number one spot and won all four majors. One glance at the rankings shows just how big the gap became: the third ranked Alexander Zverev sits 6395 points behind world number two Jannik Sinner.
It is no surprise that the bookmakers have the Italian and the Spaniard as clear favourites to win Australian Open 2026, miles clear of the chasing pack.
Who will win Australian Open 2026?
Sinner and Alcaraz are in a league of their own
Beyond the huge separation between Sinner and Alcaraz and everyone else in the market, it is worth noting that even within that head to head, analysts are giving a clear edge to the Italian. That is despite Carlos sitting higher in the rankings and winning four of the six official meetings in 2025. On top of that, the Spaniard has already beaten Jannik in 2026, albeit in an exhibition match.
A lot of this comes down to how Sinner finished 2025. In the autumn, Jannik collected four of his six titles for the season, including the ATP Finals, where he beat Alcaraz in the final. His style also suits quicker surfaces, and the Melbourne hard courts are far from slow. Add in the fact that the Italian has won the Australian Open title in back to back years, and you can see why the market is leaning his way.
So what can Alcaraz bring to the table against his biggest rival on tour? When assessing the Spaniard’s chances, it is important to note he starts the new season without his long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. In theory, not much should change because Carlos will work with Samuel Lopez, who has been in the team since 2024 and is unlikely to move away from the key training principles established under Ferrero. Still, the only real answers will come on the Melbourne courts, where we will see what the world number one looks like right now.
Year after year, the Australian Open has not clicked for Alcaraz. Across four attempts, his best results are quarter finals in 2024 and 2025. He has not played any lead in events, the same approach he took under Ferrero, which is another hint that the preparation plan has not shifted much.
In the draw, his first serious test is expected in the round of 16, where potential opponents include Tommy Paul and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, either of whom can cause problems if they hit top gear. By then, though, Alcaraz may well have played himself into the tournament and built the match rhythm he needs.
A meeting with Sinner can only happen in the final, which has become the standard scenario, as they are typically seeded one and two at events where they both play and do not cross paths until the business end. Overall, given last season’s results and their head to head, any price above 3.00 on Alcaraz lifting his first Melbourne trophy looks tempting.
One name sitting a little in the shadows is Novak Djokovic, a ten time champion in Melbourne. Age is a factor, the Serb is now 38 and it is increasingly difficult to go toe to toe with the younger generation over two weeks. But at the majors, Djokovic rarely drops below a certain level, at minimum a semi final. In 2025, he reached the semi finals at all four majors and then put his racket away: twice he lost to Sinner, once to Alcaraz, and at the Australian Open he was unable to finish his semi final against Zverev because of injury.
A year ago in Melbourne, Djokovic beat Alcaraz in the quarter finals. It is hard to predict what we will see from the legendary Serb this time, as he has not played either the lead in tournaments or exhibition matches. He is in the bottom half of the draw, which means that if the pieces fall into place he could face Sinner in the semi finals. Either way, writing off Djokovic in advance is never wise.
Among the most likely threats to Sinner and Alcaraz, Daniil Medvedev stands out. The Russian is famous for his unpredictability, and that is exactly where his strength lies. Last year, after a run of setbacks, he split with long-time coach Gilles Cervara. He needed a reset.
Judging by the start of the new season, Medvedev looks ready for a serious run. Winning Brisbane showed there is still plenty in the tank. He posted five wins, dropped just one set, and played the familiar heavy, dragging baseline tennis. Crucially, he was not afraid to be aggressive, he came forward with intent, and his serve held up well on a quick hard court. Melbourne is certainly not a meaningless stop for Daniil, he has reached the final here three times in his career. If you look at head to heads at majors, Medvedev is 2:2 with Alcaraz and 1:2 with Sinner, which is a healthy place to be.
A blacklist of top players, who could disappoint at AO 2026
The Australian Open is the first major event of the season. There has not been much time to build form, just two competitive weeks. The local climate and extreme heat often shape the story as well. This time, according to weather forecasts, it should not be too hot, staying around 25 degrees. Even so, among the top ten there are three players you might reasonably fear could go out early, so any bets involving them should be treated with caution.
Lorenzo Musetti. The Italian impressed at the Hong Kong Open by reaching the final. However, he has never really shone in Melbourne. His best result came last year, when he reached the third round. More than that, two of his last three eliminations at the tournament came when he was priced as the bookmakers’ favourite.
Taylor Fritz. The American did not look convincing at the United Cup, losing three of four matches. It suggests he is not arriving at the Australian Open in top shape and may not go deep. Fritz’s best Melbourne result is the 2024 quarter final. He has also regularly produced shocks for big price backers, with two of his last three tournament exits coming against opponents priced above 6.00.
Alexander Bublik. The newly crowned world number ten, for all his recent progress, has regularly struggled in Melbourne. He has played on these courts nine times, reached the second round only three times, and has never gone beyond that stage. On the other hand, over the last year Bublik has broken plenty of stereotypes about his game, including an excellent clay swing featuring a Roland Garros quarter final.
He started the new season by winning the Hong Kong title, so the form is there, which hints at possible success in Melbourne too. But the statistics and the pattern of early eliminations remain a concern.
Alexander Bublik vs Jenson Brooksby, 18 January
First round qualifiers can deliver profit
Year after year in Melbourne, players who come through qualifying often perform well. They have already adapted to local conditions, and early in the season, match practice can be a major edge.
A look at the numbers from the last three seasons, excluding matches where two qualifiers faced each other in round one.
Bets on qualifiers in the first round (flat stake 10 pounds sterling)
|
Year |
Wins |
Strike rate % |
Profit |
|
2023 |
5 |
35,7 |
−15,7 |
|
2024 |
8 |
57,1 |
59,4 |
|
2025 |
7 |
43,7 |
10,9 |
|
Total |
20 |
45,5 |
54,6 |
As you can see, there is no real consistency, but the key is the long run. Those who come through qualifying and find their rhythm are capable of pulling off a surprise. It is no accident that even with a negative win loss balance, the three year profit is still positive when backing qualifiers.
Among the more interesting qualifiers is Nishesh Basavareddy, who has begun working with former Medvedev coach, the Frenchman Cervara. The early signs are there: three successful qualifying rounds in Melbourne. It is worth noting the opposition was not the toughest, Basavareddy was favoured by the bookmakers in every match and he delivered. One match that stood out was against Ofner, when the Austrian won seven points in the deciding tie break and started celebrating, forgetting that at the Australian Open, the final set tie break is played to 10 points. Basavareddy managed to flip the tennis lottery in his favour and went on to win.
Next up for Nishesh is the Australian Christopher O’Connell, who has not shown anything outstanding across a long career and sits 118th in the rankings. In the Brisbane and Adelaide lead in events, he failed to come through qualifying and won just one of three matches. In terms of style, the Australian relies heavily on his serve, and it does not always fire. Basavareddy is more versatile and has already found his feet in Melbourne, so he is well capable of going further.
Nishesh Basavareddy vs Christopher O’Connell, 19 January
The business end is no place for upsets
The Australian Open, like most elite competitions, tends to produce fewer upsets in the decisive rounds. As the tournament progresses, the strongest players remain, those who have adapted to conditions and are ready to push for maximum results at the start of the season. On top of that, bookmakers’ analysts sharpen the hierarchy as the field narrows, and you can lean on that market view.
Over the last three seasons, from the round of 16 through to the final in Melbourne, 41 matches were played to completion, and favourites won 35 of them. The profit from backing favourites came to 4.9 flats, which is a very solid return.
More than that, across the last eight years, an outsider has won the final only once. That happened in 2022, when Rafael Nadal fought back to beat Daniil Medvedev in five sets in the title match.
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