Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes 2 Prediction and Betting Odds

The UFC featherweight champion Alexander Volkanovski is set to defend his title against Diego Lopes. Their rematch takes place on 1 February 2026 at UFC 325, hosted at Qudos Bank Arena in Sydney, Australia.

Who will win the fight?

Volkanovski

3/5

Lopes

27/20

Below is a breakdown of the odds, predictions, and an exclusive preview for the Lopes vs Volkanovski fight.

Volkanovski vs Lopes Betting Odds

If you expected the analysts to write off Volk completely, think again. Alexander Volkanovski is still viewed as the favourite, despite coming close to being knocked out in his first fight with Lopes. Backing Volkanovski is priced at 11/20

Volkanovski vs Lopes Odds

Diego Lopes won fans over instantly with his raw style and charisma, but bookmakers remain unconvinced that this alone is enough to consistently trouble elite operators like Volkanovski. A bet on Lopes to win is available at 5/4

Statistics and Physical Data

Alexander Volkanovski

• UFC featherweight champion. Former champion of Wollongong Wars, AFC, PXC, Roshambo MMA, AFC and Cage Conquest.

• 31 fights, 27 wins, 4 losses.

Alexander Volkanovski to win

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Bet

11/20

Volk remains a remarkable example of how a fighter can reboot his career at 37 after a run of defeats without losing motivation or championship hunger. He is still quick, durable and dangerous in combination, but an excessive focus on dealing damage can work against him. There is a real chance his opponent could capitalise on that flaw.

That said, Alexander has already shown he can trouble the Brazilian with tempo, sharp jabs and pinpoint combinations. If Diego once again drops into a shell and waits for a mistake, the former champion should comfortably take 2-3 rounds on the scorecards.

What Volkanovski must avoid is getting dragged into close-range firefights or attempting risky takedowns. Lopes throws wild but extremely dangerous punches, and any one of them could end this spectacular contest.

Volkanovski’s last 5 Fights 

Diego Lopes

• Former featherweight champion of LUX, Fury FC and XFL.

• 34 fights, 27 wins, 7 losses.

Diego Lopes to win

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Bet

7/5

On the one hand, Lopes has clearly addressed some of the flaws from the first fight and now initiates his attacks more actively. The problem is that after two or three such bursts, he still tends to back himself against the cage, looking to counter with just a couple of punches.

What is immediately noticeable, however, is the Brazilian’s technical and physical progression. His strikes are now far heavier and more accurate. The smartest approach in the rematch would be to answer every Volkanovski attack, denying Alex any chance to reset or dictate the pace in the centre of the Octagon.

Lopes’ corner will be demanding punishing body kicks, something that was sorely missing in the first fight. The champion did look to target Volk’s liver, but he was clearly wary of a single-leg entry and a prolonged takedown. Given how highly judges now value control time on the mat, those concerns are entirely justified.

Lopes’ 5 last fights

Alexander Volkanovski vs Diego Lopes Prediction

The wild knockdowns in their first meeting naturally shaped expectations for another early finish. Still, there is reason to believe that over the first three rounds both fighters will steer clear of reckless exchanges, saving their explosive attacks for the championship rounds.

It is also hard to fully share the bookmakers’ optimism regarding Volkanovski’s current form. Alex is making more mistakes than usual, and against such a chaotic, unconventional striker that could result in a brutal knockout, similar to the one Silva suffered not long ago.

At the same time, Lopes’ improvement may not be as dramatic as some fans suggest. There are more entries and attacks, but he tends to find success mainly against opponents who struggle with timing, something Volkanovski excels at. Diego could once again end up hiding behind a high guard, waiting for the challenger to expose himself during an aggressive burst.

For that reason, it is preferable to avoid picking a straight winner. Instead, the value lies in the fight going deep or reaching the judges. Lopes can absorb an enormous amount of punishment, while Volk no longer carries the same one-shot knockout power he once had.

Bet and prediction: total rounds — over 3.5.

Alexander Volkanovski to win

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Bet

3/5

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