Bold Hearts lead the Scottish Premiership

As of February 2026, we are still witnessing a truly unusual picture at the top of Scottish football. The Premiership leaders are not the Old Firm, but an ambitious Heart of Midlothian side, six points clear of both Rangers and Celtic. For the first time since the 1984/85 season, the Scottish title could bypass the two Glasgow giants, although bookmakers are still backing the reigning champions.

Who will win the 2025/26 Scottish Premiership?

Hearts’ position at the summit inevitably draws historical parallels. The last Scottish champion outside Glasgow was Aberdeen, led by Sir Alex Ferguson back in 1985.

The current Hearts head coach, Derek McInnes, is also a Scot with deep Aberdeen roots. He spent eight years in charge of the team, winning the Scottish League Cup in the 2013/14 season. Eleven years on, McInnes and Hearts are trying to become the first team of the 21st century to wrestle the title away from the Old Firm.

The secret behind Hearts’ success: ambition and smart management

After 24 rounds, Hearts have collected 54 points, winning 16 matches and losing just twice. They are the league’s top scorers with 47 goals, while conceding only 19, fewer than anyone except Rangers, who have let in 17. It is also worth remembering that this is McInnes’ first season in charge of the Edinburgh club, having been appointed in May 2025.

During the campaign, Hearts have already shown they can stand up to Scotland’s elite. In four matches against the Old Firm, they have beaten Rangers twice and Celtic once. In round 23, the headline clash between Hearts and Celtic ended in a 2:2 draw.

Hearts vs the Old Firm in the 2025/26 season

For comparison, Hearts finished last season in seventh place, scoring 43 league goals and winning just 11 games. They failed to beat either Rangers or Celtic, recording one draw and five defeats.

At least in the first half of the current campaign, Hearts’ rise can be broken down into three key elements: strong management and recruitment, detailed work from the coaching staff, and a downturn in form from the traditional title contenders.

Before the season started, Tony Bloom, one of the club’s owners, allocated £10 million towards squad development. By Scottish standards, and for a club that returned to the top flight only in 2021, that is a significant investment.

Moreover, Bloom’s scouting company, Jamestown Analytics, took charge of the summer recruitment, bringing in ten new players for the newly appointed McInnes. Unlike the underwhelming campaigns of Celtic and Rangers, many of these signings have quickly become key figures.

Hearts signings ahead of the 2025/26 season:

• Eduardo Ageu (Santa Clara);

• Claudio Braga (Aalesund);

• Elton Kabangu (Union SG);

• Sabah Kerjota (Sambenedettese);

• Alexander Schwolow (Union Berlin);

• Christian Borchgrevink (Valerenga);

• Alexandros Kyziridis (Mihalovce);

• Oisin McEntee (Walsall);

• Pierre Kabore (Narva);

• Tomas Magnusson (Valur);

• Stuart Findlay (Oxford United).

The standout is striker Claudio Braga, who has already posted 10 goals and 2 assists in 23 matches and has become a fan favourite.

The key midfield addition has been Alexandros Kyziridis, currently the league’s leading player for assists with 6, created chances with 10, and key passes at 2.1 per game.

Alexander Schwolow and Stuart Findlay have also settled in seamlessly. At 33, the goalkeeper quickly nailed down the number one spot, while the former Oxford United defender has looked solid alongside captain Craig Halkett.

McInnes and his coaching staff also deserve huge credit. Hearts operate in a flexible 4-4-2 that often morphs into a 5-4-1, making excellent use of Braga’s technical ability when breaking from deep. This approach underpinned victories against Rangers at 2:1 and the recent 2:2 draw with Celtic.

Set pieces have become a major weapon across British football, and Scotland is no exception. In the Premier League, Arsenal are feared from corners, while in the Championship it is Coventry City. Hearts lead the Premiership in this area, with 14 of their 44 goals coming from set plays. An interesting parallel emerges, as all three teams mentioned are leading their respective leagues.

McInnes has also managed his resources wisely. Despite a busy transfer window, Hearts exited both the League Cup and the Scottish Cup early, allowing them to focus entirely on the league. Unlike their rivals, they have not had European commitments, and the bench has consistently provided quality options to refresh the side.

The struggles of the Old Firm should not be overlooked either. Both clubs shuffled coaches during the first half of the season, which opened the door for Hearts to pull clear. European fixtures also took their toll. Celtic managed to scrape into the Europa League play-offs, while Rangers crashed out without much resistance.

Hearts’ title chances

Before the season, Hearts were priced at 26.00 to win the Premiership and sat sixth in the outright market. After 23 rounds, despite a healthy cushion at the top, bookmakers remain cautious and still do not see them as the leading favourite.

There are ten matches left in the first phase of the season, followed by five more in the championship round. Hearts’ main task is to protect their advantage, and ideally extend it.

The fixture list suggests they can pick up points in almost every game. A potentially decisive moment could be the away trip to Rangers on 15 February. Home matches against Aberdeen and Motherwell are also crucial. In round 25, Hearts face a tricky away game against St Mirren, who will be eager for revenge after a recent 0:2 defeat.

4 February, St. Mirren vs Hearts

There are also factors affecting their rivals. Rangers and Celtic meet on 1 March, while both clubs still have cup ties to navigate, and Celtic also have Europa League play-offs to contend with.

Any assessment of Hearts’ title chances must remain cautious. If they maintain their lead after the first phase, talk of a historic achievement will be fully justified.

There are still plenty of tough matches ahead, plus the second phase, which brings more encounters with an Old Firm duo that is gradually finding form.

A tempting price on Celtic: where is the catch?

Despite still being favourites in the outright market, Celtic’s odds for the title have reached a five-year high. Before the season, they were priced at just 1.28. The key question is whether they have the tools to overturn a six-point deficit and prevent the Hearts fairytale.

Much of Celtic’s trouble stems from managerial turmoil in the first half of the season. Brendan Rodgers departed amid controversy in October, accusing the board of toxicity and insufficient backing in the transfer market. Club legend Martin O’Neill was then appointed on an interim basis, before being replaced by Wilfried Nancy, who lasted only eight matches.

Celtic managers in the 2025/26 season

*All figures relate to Scottish Premiership matches.

After Nancy’s failure, the board listened to supporters and reinstated O’Neill, reportedly with the backing of the dressing room. Celtic quickly steadied the ship, winning three games and drawing the crucial clash with Hearts.

With the turbulence seemingly over, Celtic are expected to gather momentum and approach the second phase of the season in much stronger shape.

Given the lack of significant reinforcements, a deep Europa League run looks unlikely. In the play-off round, Celtic are underdogs against a strong Stuttgart side sitting fourth in the Bundesliga, and even if they progress, a tie against Porto or Braga would await.

20 February, Celtic vs Stuttgart

With Rangers dropping points in their last league match, drawing 0:0 with Hibernian, Celtic have already drawn level with their fiercest rivals. An early European elimination could allow O’Neill’s side to close the gap at the top to a minimum and then press home their advantage in the second phase.

In any scenario, Hearts have a genuine shot at history, but whether they can sustain results across both phases of the season remains a big question. Frank Lampard’s bold Coventry City also impressed in the first half of the Championship, only to collapse under pressure and surrender their lead within six weeks.

Celtic are clearly Hearts’ main threat. Rangers, despite improved domestic form, failed to convince in Europe and continue to drop points in the league. This may well be the best opportunity in years to back Celtic for the title at an attractive price.

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