Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2: betting tips and odds

Conor McGregor will face Max Holloway in a welterweight bout. The fight will take place on 12 July at UFC 329, at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas, United States.

This article features the latest betting odds, markets and our exclusive prediction for Holloway vs McGregor.

McGregor vs Holloway odds

Remarkably, when the market first opened, bookmakers were offering record odds of up to 4.53 on the Irishman. However, McGregor's price shortened significantly within just 24 hours, and this is unlikely to be the final movement in the market. One thing appears certain. Given his injuries, age and lengthy absence from competition, Conor is highly unlikely to become the favourite. McGregor can be backed to win at odds of 33/20

McGregor vs Holloway odds

Max, known as Blessed, is no longer quite as dangerous as he once was either. However, he has continued to compete on level terms with elite opponents throughout these years, and he remains a long way from a serious decline in form or motivation. Holloway is priced at 9/20 to win.

Statistics and Physical Data

Max holds a clear advantage in height, although McGregor has a significantly longer reach.

Conor McGregor

• Former UFC lightweight and featherweight champion, and the first fighter in UFC history to earn $1 million for stepping into the Octagon.

• Two of the fastest knockouts in MMA history belong to Conor: José Aldo in 13 seconds and Patrick Doherty in four seconds.

• He earned $30 million for his boxing match against Floyd Mayweather.

• 28 fights, 22 wins and 6 defeats.

For several years, fans have repeatedly been promised the second coming of Conor McGregor, who, according to his old-school Irish supporters, would make the lightweight division great again.

In reality, all the major announcements and promises quickly disappeared amid endless court cases, scandals, injuries and McGregor's complete loss of motivation to return to the Octagon.

However, today, after an extraordinary 13-year wait, we will finally witness the long-awaited rematch between McGregor and Holloway. The question is whether such a lengthy delay, combined with Conor's inactivity, has removed all the intrigue from this contest.

What can we expect from McGregor against Holloway?

First of all, it is important to dismiss any expectation that McGregor will suddenly arrive with a unique game plan. He and his team understand perfectly well that competing over five prolonged rounds is not a realistic option. In fact, McGregor deliberately delayed signing the contract to ensure that the main event would be contested over three rounds rather than the traditional five.

With Conor no longer possessing the same knockout power, he will need to maintain the appearance of constant activity. That would allow him to collect points over a short contest and give the judges sufficient reason to award him a split decision victory.

There is also a possibility that, should the Irishman absorb too much damage in the third round, he could attempt a takedown himself. This would slow the contest down and give him an opportunity to gain a few more points through control on the ground.

McGregor's chances of victory

The evidence from his previous performances strongly suggests that Conor has virtually no chance of succeeding in the striking exchanges against such a dangerous opponent. Holloway appears to have tested the durability of his chin against the hardest hitters in two separate divisions.

Nevertheless, should we unexpectedly see a slower, more composed and tactically disciplined version of McGregor, one prepared to exchange carefully at range for 15 minutes, the judges could still hand the Irishman a controversial split decision. That result would also provide the perfect promotional material for Conor vs Max 3.

McGregor still possesses accuracy and plenty of energy in the opening rounds, but whether that will be enough to contain Holloway's pressure remains doubtful. The problem is that Conor has already started looking beyond his next opponent, with his attention turning towards another rematch with Nate Diaz:

McGregor's last 5 fights

Max Holloway

• Former UFC featherweight champion.

• Record holder for the most knockouts in UFC featherweight history.

• Record holder for the longest total time spent inside the UFC Octagon: 8:52:43.

• BMF title holder.

• Former X1 lightweight champion.

• Black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu.

• 36 fights, 27 wins and nine defeats.

Holloway is a genuine fan favourite who, despite spending so many years in MMA, appears never to have attracted a significant group of critics. Max is respected by virtually every mixed martial arts supporter, not only because of his outstanding performances, but also because of his exceptional character.

He stays away from offensive trash talk, does not look for excuses after defeats and is prepared to face anyone under any conditions. Few fighters deserve the opportunity to avenge a loss to Conor McGregor and collect another major payday towards the end of their professional career more than Blessed Holloway.

What can we expect from Holloway against McGregor?

After so many years, it is difficult to imagine Conor getting inside the head of his former opponent and making him nervous. Max should remain composed and calculating throughout.

He understands that the key task will be surviving the first round of McGregor's unpredictable attacks. Once that stage has passed, Holloway will look to respond by increasing the pace considerably.

In the second round, the Hawaiian is likely to begin throwing extended combinations and attempt to force McGregor away from the centre of the Octagon as quickly as possible, trapping him against the fence.

Elbows, knees to the body and heavy overhand punches should quickly make the Irishman uncomfortable and force him to seek safety either in the clinch or on the ground.

Holloway's chances of victory

It is difficult to argue strongly against the bookmakers' assessment. Holloway is the clear and deserved favourite. He has remained active for many years, avoided lengthy career breaks and has not suffered any critical injuries.

However, to beat Conor and remove any difficult decision from the judges, he cannot simply land more significant punches. He must dominate McGregor in the striking exchanges, even if he does not secure a knockout.

Holloway still possesses the tools required to stop McGregor's dangerous attacks and counter effectively through his lead hand. The Hawaiian also has far greater durability. Even if he absorbs several heavy punches, he is unlikely to panic and should be able to recover quickly.

Holloway's last 5 fights

McGregor vs Holloway predictions

Michael Chandler

Anyone who does not like Max is probably not an MMA fan. Conor has been out of the Octagon for five years, so there are major questions about his current level. Personally, I do not believe we will see a competitive version of McGregor. Even so, Max is extremely difficult to beat.

Ilia Topuria

I thought Max would beat Charles Oliveira, but he lost without ever looking likely to win. With Conor, you never know what to expect. Sometimes he enters the Octagon and comfortably outclasses his opponents, then suddenly loses to Nate Diaz. When a fighter is capable of losing to Diaz, it becomes difficult to predict his next bout.

Cory Sandhagen

Conor will carry serious punching power at welterweight, but there is a risk that he will tire. Max should eventually take control if he can come through the difficult opening minutes of each round. However, should Conor arrive in good condition, maintain his pressure and increase it as the fight develops, he can win.

Robert Whittaker

Conor has been away for a long time, and nobody knows which version of him will appear in the Octagon. He did not look particularly impressive even in his most recent fight. I understand that he was injured, but his performances had already been disappointing before that.

There are also major questions about how Max will perform at welterweight. In my opinion, he looked excellent at lightweight, but now he must move up another division. Max has always relied on speed and striking volume. We do not know how effectively those qualities will translate into a different weight class.

Israel Adesanya

Conor could tire quickly because he usually commits a huge amount of energy during the first two rounds. I do not expect Max to lose his endurance. Should Conor introduce wrestling into his approach, it could become the decisive factor in the contest. However, Max has remained consistently active, while Conor has not fought since 2021. McGregor does not believe that inactivity can affect a fighter's form, but the reality is different. He should have chosen Michael Chandler for his return rather than Max Holloway.

Fighters backing Max Holloway to win

Usman Nurmagomedov

First of all, I do not believe Conor McGregor will actually turn up for the fight. Secondly, even if he does, I do not think he can beat Max Holloway. Five years is far too long to be away.

Islam Makhachev

McGregor has been given an extremely tough opponent, and I have no doubt that Max Holloway will win.

Alexander Volkanovski

Conor will not be the fighter we are used to seeing, although he will certainly remain dangerous. Max will deal with that threat and secure a stoppage. I think it will happen in the third round.

Demetrious Johnson

This may surprise people, but needing to land a huge number of strikes is not necessarily a good thing in MMA. It might work in boxing, but we are talking about a sport in which I can take my opponent down and submit him without landing a single punch. Returning to this fight, Conor does not throw a high volume of strikes. He is an accurate fighter. The question is whether he still has enough accuracy and power to knock Max out. What about his cardio? He has not competed in the Octagon for so many years. I am pleased that Conor is back, but I do not believe Max can lose this fight.

Dustin Poirier

Conor does not usually rely on his wrestling, and this time he will not have the cardio either. Even if he starts attempting takedowns, he will simply exhaust himself by the later rounds, particularly at welterweight. Max is a productive striker with excellent stamina, and he now carries respectable punching power as well. Conor is going to have serious problems.

Arman Tsarukyan

We need to see what kind of condition Conor is in now. Judging by what I have seen over the past few years, Max is the favourite. He has continued training and competing without interruption. He is much more likely to win.

Dan Hooker

The weight division changes everything. Max came through the featherweight division and only recently tested himself at lightweight. However, I do not think Conor will be particularly impressive at welterweight either. Max is quick and consistently performs at a high level. Fighting is not something you can simply walk away from and then return to without difficulty. Most people retire altogether after suffering an injury like McGregor's.

Chael Sonnen

There has never been a case of a fighter returning in an unfamiliar weight division and winning. Nobody has come back after six years in good condition. Nobody has returned as the same fighter after suffering that type of leg injury. Just look at Chris Weidman, Anderson Silva and Corey Hill. Conor will have to achieve something nobody has ever managed before, and he must do it in three separate areas. They did not even accommodate him by making it a three round contest. Conor has been booked for five rounds, which leaves him with only one possible route to victory, a knockout. The situation could hardly be worse. It is time for everyone to accept that Max will win.

Fighters backing Conor McGregor to win

Javier Mendez

Conor is the favourite for me. He is the better boxer and carries greater power. Holloway was knocked out by Ilia Topuria relatively recently, and I see no reason why Conor cannot repeat that success inside the Octagon. The fight will take place on the feet, where Conor has the advantage in power and boxing intelligence. I am not saying Max has no chance. Just look at what he did to Justin Gaethje. However, McGregor remains my favourite.

Nate Diaz

I know Conor will return and perform well. It does not necessarily have to be against me. I am looking forward to seeing him have a great fight with Holloway. I believe Conor is the better fighter at this point.

Khalil Rountree Jr

Conor is genuinely determined to make a successful return, and he will be completely focused. He wants to show the world who he is. We will see an excellent version of Conor, and he will give Max a serious test.

Ian Machado Garry

Conor will win, although it will not be an easy fight. Max has competed against the best fighters in the world. Let me explain the difference through sound. When Max fights, he sounds like a Uzi. He keeps firing and landing strikes, but he does not possess single shot knockout power. When Conor lands, it sounds like a shotgun. He connects with his left hand and the contest is over.

Daniel Cormier

Whenever Conor faced fighters who were not at their best, he ran through them with ease. Unfortunately for him, he is now facing Max Holloway, who remains at a very high level. The key question is which version of McGregor will appear in the Octagon. I believe we will see a more focused Conor than ever before.

I do not know how the inactivity, injuries and changes in weight will have affected him. However, a McGregor who is more motivated than ever will have enough to beat Max Holloway.

McGregor vs Holloway: Legalbet Prediction 

Before offering a prediction for such a difficult contest, it is worth asking one question. Why has Conor been brought back? Is this a one-off appearance designed to add profile to a major event, or is it an attempt to guide both fighters towards a potential trilogy?

The problem is that a Max victory would remove any real reason for a third fight. Nor is anyone likely to give Conor another faded veteran such as Donald Cerrone.

It creates a very complicated situation. As much as we admire Max as an honest competitor, we would not be surprised if he received an offer to extend the storyline with the Irishman for another fight. That is before considering the familiar issue of UFC judging, which has attracted considerable criticism from supporters in recent years.

We must admit that unless we see a quick knockout, no judges' decision would surprise me. However much pressure Conor applies, he is unlikely to knock Max out, particularly at welterweight. Holloway will naturally be noticeably slower at this weight, which could allow McGregor to survive the Hawaiian's aggressive attacks.

We fear this contest could reach the judges' scorecards, and predicting their verdict under the current circumstances is extremely difficult. We will always support Max in his rivalry with Conor, but the extremely short odds on a Holloway victory offer little appeal.

Our selection and prediction is therefore over 2.5 rounds, with the bet settled once the fight reaches the halfway point of the third round. A considerably riskier alternative is for the fight to go the distance.

UFC 329 full fight card

A total of 28 fighters will compete at the event. The main event will feature Conor McGregor against Max Holloway. Benoît Saint Denis will face Paddy Pimblett in the co-main event, while King Green and Terrance McKinney will open the main card. The preliminary card will also feature a bout between Nikita Krylov and Robert Whittaker.

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