What to Bet on at the Miami Open

After Jannik Sinner’s triumph in Indian Wells, all eyes at the Miami Open will be on the Italian. Sinner has the chance to become the first player since Roger Federer to win both U.S. spring hard-court events, completing the so-called “Sunshine Double.”

Who will lift the Miami Open title?

Jannik Sinner

6/5

Carlos Alcaraz

3/2

Daniil Medvedev

14/1

This article looks at the main favourites and the most appealing betting trends for the tournament, as well as why completing the “Sunshine Double” is a special milestone for any player.

Miami Open Favourites

Indian Wells was memorable not only for Sinner’s triumph but also for Alcaraz’s first defeat of the season, which came not against Sinner but in the semi-finals against Medvedev.

The Russian star once again demonstrated his unpredictability: after a tough flight from Dubai and a disrupted schedule, many expected him to struggle. Yet Daniil played a strong tournament and was close to winning the title, ultimately losing to Sinner in two tight tie-breaks in the final.

These Indian Wells results influenced the betting odds for Miami: Sinner and Alcaraz remain the primary favourites, but the Italian now holds the status of clear frontrunner.

Miami Open Winner Odds

Sinner has excellent chances to secure the “Sunshine Double” for the first time in his career. Two key factors strengthen his case beyond his Indian Wells form.

First, Sinner boasts the most impressive record in Miami among all the leading contenders: one title, two finals and a quarter-final from just four appearances. 

Second, at Indian Wells he avoided any long three-set matches — all six of his wins came in straight sets.

At Indian Wells, Sinner avoided long three-set matches, winning all six matches in straight sets (2-0). Extended matches are the main challenge for the world No.2, who in 2026 has already lost to Novak Djokovic in Melbourne in five sets and to Jakub Mensik in Doha in three sets.

It’s also important to note that this is a crucial moment for Sinner in the race for the ATP No.1 ranking. Last year he skipped both Indian Wells and Miami, so he has the chance to rack up significant points and close the gap with Alcaraz — following his Indian Wells victory, the deficit shrank to 2,150 points.

Jannik Sinner to win the Miami Open

Bet

6/5

Miami Open: Hard Court on Paper, Clay in Practice

The last player to win both U.S. spring hard-court events was in 2017. Last season, Indian Wells champion Jack Draper fell in the second round in Miami.

Unlike Indian Wells, Miami doesn’t pose speed issues on the court, but higher humidity becomes a factor. Balls quickly gain weight, making it difficult to hit outright winners with forehand power. Endurance and strong form, enabling players to sustain long rallies, are critical.

As a result, Miami tends to favour clay-court specialists rather than pure hard-court players, which is reflected in recent results: Juan Manuel Cerundolo reached the quarter-finals twice in three years, and in 2024 Nicolás Jarry made a surprise quarter-final run.

What to Bet on at the Miami Open: The Second Round Is a Goldmine for High Odds

The American hard-court Masters double is a tough challenge. Transitioning between climates after Indian Wells and adapting to a slightly different hard surface is tricky. Comparing the two Masters, Miami has seen more surprises: underdogs have won 35% of matches over the last five years, compared to 32.86% at Indian Wells.

Last year, only two top-ten seeds reached the Miami quarter-finals — Novak Djokovic and Taylor Fritz. Djokovic advanced to the final but was unexpectedly beaten by Mensik.

The second round is usually notable: 32 seeds enter, and not all can perform at their peak immediately.

Underdog Bets in the Second Round of the Miami Open

Over the last five years, bets on underdogs in the second round were profitable every time, except once minimally. Standout examples from 2025 include Alcaraz losing at odds of 13.00+ and Ben Shelton falling to Coleman Wong at 7.00.

Players to Watch This Year

Jiri Lehecka. The Czech player has modest stats for the season: six wins and five losses. At the start of Indian Wells, he fell to Sebastián Báez, even though odds of 1.42 were offered on Lehečka to win. Miami has been unkind: three appearances, never past the third round, losing in the second round at his last two events as favourite.

Flavio Cobolli. The Italian won the Acapulco tournament in early March and currently holds a career-high ranking of 14. However, maintaining a high level clearly isn’t easy for him: at Indian Wells, he barely scraped past Miomir Kecmanovic in the first round, then lost to Frances Tiafoe, winning only three games.

Next up is Miami, where Cobolli has played twice but never progressed past the second round. Last year, he suffered a shock defeat to Thiago Agustin Tirante at this stage, and this time he will face a tough second-round opponent regardless — either Raphael Collignon or Grigor Dimitrov.

Ben Shelton. The American was remembered last year in Miami for a heavy second-round loss to Coleman Wong. In three career appearances in Miami, he has won just one match, losing the other three as a favourite. At Indian Wells, the world No. 9 struggled, barely getting past Reilly Opelka before falling to Frances Tiafoe. Shelton does not seem likely to make waves at one of his least successful tournaments.

Felix Auger-Aliassime. The Canadian reached the Miami semi-finals back in 2019, but since then, has not gone beyond the third round in his last five appearances, losing four times as a favourite. 

At Indian Wells, his performance was underwhelming: he barely overcame Gael Monfils and Gabriel Diallo in three sets, then lost to Márton Fucsovics despite being the match favourite.

Read more: