The Matchday 4 clash in the Copa Libertadores 2025 group stage between Bahia (Brazil) and Nacional (Uruguay) in Group F will take place on May 8 at the Fonte Nova Stadium in Salvador. Bahia vs. Nacional: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Yael Falcón (Argentina)
Matches – 5 (International matches, 2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 21;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.2;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 20%.
Both Bahia and Nacional have scored three goals after three rounds, yet a clear gap separates them — not only in terms of standings, but also in defensive performance. For this reason, Bahia approach this fixture as firm favourites.
Bahia have conceded just one goal so far. Internacional required nearly the entire match to find the net, resulting only in a draw. This defensive solidity has been consistent not just in continental competition, but also in the Brazilian Serie A. After seven rounds, Bahia are sixth in the standings, averaging one goal conceded per match. They've only exceeded that average in two of 11 matches across both competitions since the beginning of the season.
Nacional scored all three of their goals in a single 90-minute outing against Internacional (3:3). Nacional led 3:0 but still failed to secure the win. In that match, they recorded just 28% possession and struggled in both xG and total shots on target.
Bahia earned an away win in the first leg. They scored the match’s only goal from two shots on target and 0.47 xG. Nacional created more opportunities (five shots on target) but failed to convert. Their xG statistic was even lower (0.37). Given this, a home win with no more than three goals in total seems a reasonable expectation.
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