The semi-final match of the French Cup between Dunkirk and PSG will take place on April 1 at the Pierre Mauroy Stadium in Villeneuve-d'Ascq. Dunkirk vs. PSG: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Dunkirk
The club has reached the semi-finals of the French Cup for the first time in its history, with their previous best being the quarter-finals, last achieved in the 1970/71 season. In the previous round, Dunkirk eliminated Brest with a 3-2 victory. In the current French Cup campaign, the club has played six matches, starting from the 1/128 finals, winning four of them in regular time. They only needed penalties in the opening match against Stade Béthunois (0-0, 7-6 on pens) and the round of 16 against Lille (1-1, 5-4 on pens). It's worth noting that all their matches in the current French Cup have been played away from home.
- The club has won with a +1.5 goal handicap in their last 17 French Cup matches.
- No more than four goals have been scored in 16 of Dunkirk's last 18 matches in this tournament.
- The team has scored in the second half in six of their last eight French Cup matches.
Predicted lineup for Dunkirk (4-5-1)
Ywen Jaures – Alex Jorgen, Geoffrey Kondogbia, Vincent Sasso, Benjaloud Youssouf – Hugo Raguber, Muhannad Al-Saad, Enzo Bardeli, Malik Diop, Maxence Rivera – Kyei Thean.
PSG
The Parisians thrashed Briochin 7-0 in the quarter-finals. The reigning champions have confidently won their last three French Cup matches in regular time, although they started from the 1/32 finals with a tough penalty shootout victory over Lens (4-3 on pens, 1-1 regular time). Since the 2014/15 season, the capital club has reached the French Cup semi-final for the 9th time, successfully advancing in all previous eight instances and winning seven titles during this period. Interestingly, PSG has also played all their matches in the current French Cup campaign away from home.
- The team has won by at least a 1.5-goal margin in seven of their last ten French Cup matches.
- At least three goals have been scored in ten of PSG's last 13 matches in this tournament.
- The Parisians have opened the scoring in eight of their last ten French Cup matches.
Predicted lineup for PSG (4-3-3)
Matvey Safonov – Lucas Hernandez, William Pacho, Lucas Beraldo, Achraf Hakimi – Senny Mayulu, Fabian Ruiz, Joao Neves – Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Goncalo Ramos, Desire Doue.
Referee
Jerome Brisard (France)
Matches – 5 (French Cup, 2022/23 – 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 14;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.8;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 20%.
Dunkirk vs. PSG: Match Prediction
The nominal hosts have achieved a historic milestone by reaching the semi-finals of the French Cup. They demonstrated their character in the quarter-finals, coming from two goals down against Ligue 1 side Brest to turn the match around. Dunkirk's strength is further evidenced by their victories over three top-flight French teams, including Lille and Auxerre, en route to the semi-finals.
As mentioned earlier, Dunkirk has played all their matches in this tournament away from home. This upcoming nominal home match will also be played at Lille's stadium, as they cannot meet the federation's security requirements at their own ground when hosting PSG. For the defending champions, it doesn't matter where they play. Like their upcoming opponent, PSG has played all their matches in this French Cup campaign away from home, easily reaching the semi-finals. Few doubt that PSG will once again play in the tournament's decisive match. The last time the French giants lost in a French Cup semi-final was in the 1985/86 season.
The difference in class and experience in the decisive stages of the French Cup is, of course, incomparable. However, the nominal hosts could take advantage of any underestimation by the Parisians. Dunkirk is unlikely to challenge their star-studded opponents, but they are capable of finding the back of PSG's net. The club has scored in 12 of their last 13 French Cup matches, and PSG has failed to keep a clean sheet in six of their last nine matches in this tournament. Furthermore, the capital team has conceded in their last five league matches.
Therefore, I expect a goal from the hosts. My prediction: Dunkirk Individual Total Over 0.5
