Ahead of Thursday’s head-to-head clash, Indonesia hold a three-point advantage over China and currently occupy a provisional top-four position in Group C, which would be enough to secure a place in the play-off round. The fixture in Jakarta is of significant importance for both squads. In the reverse meeting, China secured a 2:1 victory.
Despite heavy defensive defeats to group favourites Japan (0:4) and Australia (1:5), Indonesia remain in the running for a spot at the 2026 FIFA World Cup finals. In their most recent outing against Bahrain (1:0), Indonesia made the most of their chances, while Bahrain posed little threat (0.26 xG and just one shot on target).
Following consecutive wins over Indonesia and Bahrain (1:0), China have produced steady performances against Japan (1:3), Saudi Arabia (0:1), and Australia (0:2), even though they failed to pick up any points. Against Australia, China recorded 0.89 xG, while their opponent had 1.02 xG — an indication of attacking potential that could prove decisive in this crucial match.
While the squad of Indonesia is nearly three times more valuable than that of China, it still lacks an individual capable of influencing the result on its own. China have already beaten Indonesia under the same coach back in October, implementing a compact tactical approach. Taking that into account, we will back a handicap on China with insurance.