Ahead of the upcoming derby between Inter Milan and AC Milan, almost all advanced statistics and recent head-to-head results do not favour AC Milan. For Paulo Fonseca, Sunday's game could be his last at the helm of AC Milan, as the club's management are actively searching for his replacement.
Inter Milan's midweek encounter with Manchester City at the Etihad Stadium ended in a rather uneventful 0:0 draw. Inter Milan conceded 2.24 xGA but did not allow any clear-cut chances (only five shots on target). Meanwhile, Matteo Darmian's one-on-one chance with Ederson Moraes nearly gave them the win. The coach rested key players such as Lautaro Martínez, Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Benjamin Pavard, and Denzel Dumfries. They are all expected to return to the lineup for the derby. Notably, in Serie A, only Atalanta BC have a better xG than Inter Milan (8.58 vs to 9.17).
AC Milan have also shown strong attacking form (7.73 xG over four league games, the fourth-best in the league), but this does not offset their defensive errors. In terms of expected goals against (xGA), AC Milan are in the lower half of the Serie A table (5.93 xGA). Their 3:1 loss to Liverpool at the San Siro highlighted their defensive frailties during free kicks and corners, with two goals conceded from corners. The injury to full-back Davide Calabria leaves the inconsistent Emerson Royal as the only option on the flank for the coach.
Since the beginning of 2023, Inter Milan have won six consecutive matches against AC Milan, scoring fewer than two goals on only two occasions. Inter Milan are poised to capitalise on their neighbours' current disarray, especially with their coach on the brink of being replaced.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 | U 2.5 | O 2.5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/25 | 3/1 | 4/1 | 5/4 | 13/20 | |
| 13/20 | 59/20 | 19/5 | 6/5 | 13/20 | |
| 67/100 | 3/1 | 4/1 | 6/5 | 67/100 | |
| 7/10 | 29/10 | 19/5 |
—
|
—
|
|
| 13/20 | 3/1 | 4/1 | 5/4 | 61/100 | |
| 7/10 | 3/1 | 7/2 | 6/5 | 13/20 |
|
Simone Inzaghi
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
In squad
|
|||
|
Yann Sommer
|
gk. | 4 | -3 |
|
Andrei Radu
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Josep Martínez
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Raffaele Di Gennaro
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Federico Dimarco
|
df. | 4 | 0 |
|
Matteo Darmian
|
df. | 4 | 1 |
|
Alessandro Bastoni
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Benjamin Pavard
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Francesco Acerbi
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Stefan de Vrij
|
df. | 1 | 0 |
|
Yann Bisseck
|
df. | 1 | 0 |
|
Tomás Palacios
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Carlos Augusto
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Davide Frattesi
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Henrikh Mkhitaryan
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Kristjan Asllani
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Denzel Dumfries
|
mf. | 3 | 1 |
|
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
|
mf. | 3 | 1 |
|
Nicolò Barella
|
mf. | 3 | 1 |
|
Piotr Zieliński
|
mf. | 1 | 0 |
|
Tajon Buchanan
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Marcus Thuram
|
fw. | 4 | 4 |
|
Mehdi Taremi
|
fw. | 4 | 0 |
|
Lautaro Martínez
|
fw. | 3 | 0 |
|
Marko Arnautovic
|
fw. | 2 | 0 |
|
Joaquín Correa
|
fw. | 1 | 0 |
|
Paulo Fonseca
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
In squad
|
|||
|
Mike Maignan
|
gk. | 4 | -6 |
|
Lapo Nava
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Marco Sportiello
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Theo Hernandez
|
df. | 4 | 1 |
|
Emerson De Souza
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Fikayo Tomori
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Strahinja Pavlović
|
df. | 3 | 1 |
|
Davide Calabria
|
df. | 2 | 0 |
|
Filippo Terracciano
|
df. | 1 | 0 |
|
Malick Thiaw
|
df. | 1 | 0 |
|
Matteo Gabbia
|
df. | 1 | 0 |
|
Alejandro Jimenez
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Alessandro Florenzi
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Ruben Loftus Cheek
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Tijani Reijnders
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Yunus Dimoara Musah
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
Youssouf Fofana
|
mf. | 3 | 1 |
|
Ismaël Bennacer
|
mf. | 1 | 0 |
|
Christian Pulisic
|
fw. | 4 | 2 |
|
Noah Okafor
|
fw. | 4 | 1 |
|
Rafael Leão
|
fw. | 4 | 1 |
|
Samuel Chukwueze
|
fw. | 4 | 0 |
|
Luka Jović
|
fw. | 2 | 0 |
|
Tammy Abraham
|
fw. | 2 | 1 |
|
Álvaro Morata
|
fw. | 2 | 1 |
|
Chaka Traorè
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Marco Nasti
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
Post by:
Serie A
Venezia
Genoa
Juventus
Napoli
Lecce
Parma
Fiorentina
Lazio
Monza
Bologna
AS Roma
Udinese
Inter Milan
AC Milan
Atalanta
Como 1907
