On Saturday at St James' Park, Newcastle United (7th) face Brighton (6th) in a clash between table neighbours and European hopefuls. They delivered vastly different performances in the last round—will defence or attack triumph this time?
Newcastle United have a balanced situation with both their attack and defence. They're highly active up front, generating at least 1.5 xG in six out of seven rounds, but they've only scored twice in two of those matches. Opponents also haven't surpassed three goals in games against them (conceding 7 with 10.39 xGA). This led to a 0:0 stalemate in the round before the break, where combined with Everton, the teams created 2.72 xG.
Brighton, on the other hand, have been involved in goal-fests for the past four matches, including the League Cup: neither side scores less than two goals. These shootouts earned Brighton four points and advancement to the League Cup's fourth round. They have no issues with finishing, having scored more (13 goals) than their expected (10.75 xG). It's the opponents who squander chances—only Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur have exceeded their expected goals tally. This mirrors Newcastle's situation.
Betting on the total under such contrasting scoring conditions is a risky move. It's hard to predict which side will impose their style. Last season, they displayed both over (3:1 for Brighton at home) and under (1:1 at Newcastle) scoring outcomes in their fixtures, with Brighton coming out ahead. Expect that trend to continue in the upcoming game.
|
Eddie Howe
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
In squad
|
|||
|
Nick Pope
|
gk. | 7 | -7 |
|
Martin Dúbravka
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
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Odysseas Vlachodimos
|
gk. | 0 | 0 |
|
Dan Burn
|
df. | 7 | 0 |
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Lewis Hall
|
df. | 7 | 0 |
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Valentino Livramento
|
df. | 7 | 0 |
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Fabian Schär
|
df. | 5 | 1 |
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Kieran Trippier
|
df. | 5 | 0 |
|
Lloyd Kelly
|
df. | 5 | 0 |
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Alex Murphy
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
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Emil Krafth
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Jamaal Lascelles
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Matthew Targett
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Sven Botman
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
|
Anthony Gordon
|
mf. | 7 | 2 |
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Bruno Guimaraes
|
mf. | 7 | 0 |
|
Sean Longstaff
|
mf. | 6 | 0 |
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Joseph Willock
|
mf. | 5 | 0 |
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Sandro Tonali
|
mf. | 5 | 0 |
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Isaac Hayden
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
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Joe White
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
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Lewis Miley
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
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Harvey Barnes
|
fw. | 7 | 3 |
|
Joelinton
|
fw. | 7 | 1 |
|
Alexander Isak
|
fw. | 5 | 1 |
|
Jacob Murphy
|
fw. | 4 | 0 |
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Miguel Almirón
|
fw. | 3 | 0 |
|
William Osula
|
fw. | 1 | 0 |
|
Callum Wilson
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Garang Kuol
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
|
Fabian Hürzeler
|
coach | ||
| Player | Matches | Goals | |
|
In squad
|
|||
|
Bart Verbruggen
|
gk. | 5 | -9 |
|
Jason Steele
|
gk. | 2 | -1 |
|
Lewis Dunk
|
df. | 7 | 0 |
|
Joël Veltman
|
df. | 6 | 0 |
|
Jan Paul van Hecke
|
df. | 4 | 0 |
|
Pervis Estupiñán
|
df. | 4 | 0 |
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Adam Webster
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Ferdi Kadioglu
|
df. | 3 | 0 |
|
Igor Julio
|
df. | 2 | 0 |
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Ed Turns
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Imari Samuels
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Odel Offiah
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Tariq Lamptey
|
df. | 0 | 0 |
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Jack Hinshelwood
|
mf. | 7 | 1 |
|
Carlos Baleba
|
mf. | 6 | 1 |
|
Julio Enciso
|
mf. | 5 | 0 |
|
Yasin Ayari
|
mf. | 5 | 0 |
|
Mats Wieffer
|
mf. | 4 | 0 |
|
James Milner
|
mf. | 3 | 0 |
|
Cameron Peupion
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Jakub Moder
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Jensen Weir
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Matt O'Riley
|
mf. | 0 | 0 |
|
Danny Welbeck
|
fw. | 7 | 4 |
|
Kaoru Mitoma
|
fw. | 7 | 1 |
|
Yankuba Minteh
|
fw. | 7 | 1 |
|
Georginio Rutter
|
fw. | 6 | 2 |
|
Simon Adingra
|
fw. | 5 | 1 |
|
João Pedro de Jesus
|
fw. | 4 | 2 |
|
Evan Ferguson
|
fw. | 3 | 0 |
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Brajan Gruda
|
fw. | 1 | 0 |
|
Solomon March
|
fw. | 0 | 0 |
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