The first leg of the 2025/26 Europa League second qualifying round between Celje (Slovenia) and AEK Larnaca (Cyprus) will take place on July 24 at the Zdezele Stadium. Celje vs. AEK Larnaca: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Bastien Dechepy (France)
Matches – 14 (International matches and Ligue 1, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 64;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.6;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 27;
Penalties – 57%.
In the previous round of the UEFA Europa League qualifying, both NK Celje and AEK Larnaca progressed after intense and emotionally charged encounters. Following such demanding ties, Thursday’s fixture is likely to be a cagey affair, with the visitors expected to adopt a cautious, defence-first approach.
Before their clash with Sabah FC (6:5 on aggregate), Celje had played only one pre-season friendly, which left them vulnerable to mistakes. Although the team claimed a 3:2 away win in Azerbaijan, they surrendered a two-goal lead in the second leg within a single minute. They eventually advanced in extra time, courtesy of a goal from Nikita Iosifov, who has recorded one goal and three assists in three matches this season. In their domestic outing against Maribor (2:1), the squad allowed just four shots on target, indicating that their defensive structure is far sounder when the preferred starting eleven is deployed.
By contrast, AEK Larnaca opened their European campaign with a disciplined and compact defensive performance. Over 210 minutes against FK Partizan (aggregate score 3:2), the team conceded only seven shots on target. They had the opportunity to avoid extra time in the second leg, but Karol Angielski missed from the penalty spot. Head coach Ivi Idiakez will be without Enzo Cabrera and Giorgos Naoum due to injury, in addition to Jérémie Gnali, who is suspended following his decisive penalty in the shootout.
While NK Celje are considered slight favourites on home turf, AEK Larnaca displayed considerable resilience in the previous round, making Total Under 2.5 goals the most sensible betting angle.
