The first leg of the UEFA Europa Conference League 2025/26 qualification playoff between Rosenborg (Norway) and Mainz (Germany) will take place on August 21 at the Lerkendal Stadium in Trondheim. Rosenborg vs. Mainz: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Rosenborg
The Norwegians have already advanced through two rounds in this Conference League. In the first round, Alfred Johansson's team comfortably defeated Banga (5-0, 2-0), but the matchup against Hammarby proved more challenging (0-0, 1-0). Notably, Rosenborg has kept four consecutive clean sheets, although they had conceded in nine previous matches in this tournament. The club is participating in the Conference League for the third time, yet they have never reached the group stage.
- Rosenborg has not lost in 7 of their last 8 games in the Conference League (4 wins, 3 draws).
- At home, the team has not conceded more than one goal in 6 of their last 7 matches in this tournament.
- The club opened the scoring in 5 of their last 7 home games in the Conference League.
Predicted lineup for Rosenborg (4-3-3)
Sander Tangvik – Mikkel Konradsen Seide, Adrian Pereira, Aslak Fonn Witry, Tomas Nemcik – Ole Kristian Selnes, Santeri Väänänen, Simen Nordli – Ole Seter, Dino Islamovic, Jesper Reitan.
Mainz
The team finished 6th in the last Bundesliga season, earning the right to participate in the Conference League. Mainz is not a frequent participant in European competitions. The last time they played on the international stage was in the 2016/17 season. In the group stage of the Europa League, the club lost only once but finished third. In their two earlier Europa League appearances, Mainz was eliminated in the first round.
- Both teams scored in 5 of Mainz's last 7 Europa League games.
- The team has not lost in 5 of their last 6 matches in this tournament (2 wins, 3 draws).
- In 4 of their last 5 away games in the Europa League, the club did not score more than one goal.
Predicted lineup for Mainz (4-4-2)
Robin Zentner – Anthony Caci, Philipp Mwene, Danny da Costa, Dominik Kohr – Maxim Leitsch, Kaishu Sano, Paul Nebel, Lee Jae-sung – Nadiem Amiri, Benedikt Hollerbach.
Referee
Oleksiy Derevinskyi (Ukraine)
Matches – 6 (International matches, 2024/25 - 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 27;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.5;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 17%.
Rosenborg vs. Mainz: Match Prediction
Bookmakers have made Bo Henriksen's team the favorites for this match. Undoubtedly, the Bundesliga is stronger than the Norwegian league, but Mainz has not been on the international stage since 2016. Meanwhile, Rosenborg has considerable European experience. Moreover, in the Conference League, the Scandinavians have shown decent results, especially at home, where they have not lost in 6 of 7 matches (4 wins, 2 draws).
Mainz matched their best Bundesliga result last season but faltered at the tournament's end. The Germans have won only one of their last 9 league matches (5 draws, 3 losses), and that victory came against relegated Bochum. It is important to note that during the offseason, the team lost their top scorer, Jonathan Burkardt, which could make it difficult to break down the defense of Rosenborg, who have yet to concede in this Conference League.
I wouldn't be surprised if the Norwegians avoid defeat. However, I suggest playing it safe with a positive handicap. My prediction: Rosenborg with a handicap (+1)
