The first leg of the 2025/26 Europa League first qualifying round between Shakhtar (Ukraine) and Ilves (Finland) will take place on July 10 at the Stožice Stadium in Ljubljana. Shakhtar vs. Ilves: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Shakhtar
The team qualified for the Europa League by winning the Ukrainian Cup. In the national championship, the club finished third and, for the first time in the 21st century, missed out on the Champions League. Shakhtar has participated in the Europa League nine times, but never in the qualification stages. Their best results in this European competition were reaching the semifinals in the 2015/16 and 2019/20 seasons. Last season, the club played in the Champions League group stage and finished 27th (2 wins, 1 draw, 5 losses).
In the offseason, Arda Turan became the team's new head coach.
- Shakhtar has not won by more than one goal in 19 of their last 20 home European matches.
- Both teams scored in Shakhtar's last four home Europa League games.
- The Ukrainian club has failed to win in 9 of their last 11 international matches (2 draws, 7 losses).
Predicted lineup for Shakhtar (4-1-4-1)
Dmytro Riznyk – Valeriy Bondar, Mykola Matvienko, Vinicius Tobias, Pedro Henrique Azevedo – Marlon Gomes – Kevin, Georgiy Sudakov, Artem Bondarenko, Alisson – Eginado.
Ilves
The Finnish team earned a spot in the Europa League by finishing second in the national championship. The last time they played in this European competition was in the 2020/21 season, but they didn't advance past the first qualifying round. Last year, the club participated in the Conference League and was eliminated in the third qualifying stage. Currently, in the Finnish championship, Jonas Rantanen's squad is in third place.
- Both teams scored in Ilves' last six European matches.
- In 6 of their last 7 international games, the club has not lost by more than one goal.
- At least three goals were scored in four of Ilves' away matches in European tournaments.
Predicted lineup for Ilves (3-4-3)
Otso Virtanen – Matias Rale, Aapo Mäenpää, Tatu Miettunen – Anton Popovitch, Joona Veteli, Kalle Wallius, Oiva Jukkola – Marius Söderbäck, Adeleke Akinyemi, Lauri Ala-Myllymäki.
Referee
Mark Nagtegaal (Netherlands)
Matches – 21 (International matches and Eredivisie, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 55;
Average yellow cards per match – 2.6;
Red cards shown – 2;
Average fouls per match – 19;
Penalties – 10%.
Shakhtar vs. Ilves: Match Prediction
The Ukrainian club is the clear favorite in the upcoming match, but I believe it's not so straightforward. Yes, the club won the Ukrainian Cup, but missing out on the Champions League was a disappointment for the management. As a result, a new head coach was appointed on July 1, and in my opinion, he hasn't had enough time to establish the team's play. Additionally, in their last five home Europa League matches, Shakhtar has not won by more than one goal. The same outcome was recorded in 24 of their last 25 European matches.
Ilves has limited experience in international competitions, but this makes the players' motivation particularly high. In 6 of their 7 European tournament matches, the Finnish club has not lost by more than one goal. Also, note that the Finnish championship is currently in full swing, and the players are in good form, while Shakhtar has only recently returned from a break.
My prediction: Ilves with a handicap (+1.5)
