Heading into the penultimate round of the Nations League, Slovenia, Norway, and Austria are level on points, each with seven. Norway currently top the standings. They are well-positioned to maintain their lead even without Martin Ødegaard in the lineup, especially since their captain, Erling Haaland, is motivated following a disappointing spell at his club.
Slovenia maximised their points against the group's underdog Kazakhstan, securing two clean-sheet victories (3:0 and 1:0). However, when playing in Oslo against Norway, they unexpectedly faltered (0:3), creating significantly fewer chances (0.79-2.33 in xG and 2-14 in shots on target). In their fourth match against Kazakhstan, it was evident that Slovenia struggled to play in a possession-based style, as they are more accustomed to counter-attacking.
Before their painful defeat to Austria (1:5), Norway were in fine form with two wins. Even the setback in Linz wasn't critical; in terms of expected goals, the Scandinavians weren't far from their rival (0.80-2.28 in xG), indicating they can create chances without Martin Ødegaard. Ståle Solbakken is likely to stick with the 4-3-3 formation, featuring Alexander Sørloth operating on the flank.
Norway's convincing victory over Slovenia in their previous encounter makes them the favourites for the upcoming match. A reliable handicap (0) on the visitors is the smartest pick in this matchup. The Slovenians currently lack the quality compared to the Norwegians, making success unlikely for them.