Southampton vs Ipswich: betting odds 21 Sep 2024

In a six-pointer at St. Mary's, two recently promoted sides from the Championship, Southampton and Ipswich Town, will battle for their first victory. Southampton progressed to the League Cup Round of 16 this week, but it was with their reserves. The first team, however, has forgotten the taste of success since last season.

Southampton have been disappointing since their return to the Premier League. They can't seem to win even when the conditions are favourable. Against Newcastle United, they failed to score despite playing an hour with a man advantage; they even conceded a goal. They controlled possession for nearly two-thirds of their match against Brentford but squandered almost all 18 shots (6 on target), only scoring in the 95th minute when the result was already decided. Their lack of confidence was evident in their last game against Manchester United: they earned a penalty at 0:0, but Cameron Archer's poor shot was saved by the goalkeeper, leading to a collapse. In the League Cup, they managed to defeat a similarly struggling Everton, but only in a penalty shootout despite dominating possession (74%). In short, the situation is dire — they have an xG of 4.60 but have only scored once.

Ipswich Town, on the other hand, look much stronger. They faced tougher challenges at the start: Liverpool immediately, followed by champions Manchester City. Conceding six goals to those teams is nothing to be ashamed of, especially as they even managed to score against Manchester City, taking an early lead. Against easier opponents, the team hasn't lost, including a draw with  Brighton that had started the season well. Ipswich Town have scored two goals in four games, which is respectable given their xG (1.54) — this is across four matches, not just one. They have conceded fewer than expected (xGA 8.60) — seven.

Adding to Southampton's woes are last season's encounters. Back in the Championship, Ipswich Town managed to beat Southampton twice: 1:0 away and 3:2 at home. On Saturday, Ipswich should at least earn a point. We’re going with a zero handicap, but an away win is highly probable.