The Bundesliga's Matchday 10 clash between St. Pauli and Bayern Munich is set to take place on November 9 at the Millerntor Stadium in Hamburg. St. Pauli vs. Bayern Munich: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Referee: Timo Gerach (Germany)
Matches – 11 (Bundesliga, 2023/24–2024/25);
Yellow/red cards shown – 39;
Average yellow/red cards per match – 3.5;
Red cards shown – 5;
Fouls per match on average – 21;
Penalties – 45%.
Probable line-ups for the match St. Pauli vs. Bayern Munich
St. Pauli (3-4-3): Nikola Vasilj – Karol Mets, Erik Smith, Hauke Wahl – Philipp Ziereis, Carlo Boukhalfa, Jackson Irvine, Manolis Saliakas – Morgan Gilavogui, Johannes Eggestein, Oladapo Afolayan.
Bayern Munich (4-5-1): Manuel Neuer – Alphonso Davies, Kim Min-jae, Dayot Upamecano, Raphael Guerreiro – Joshua Kimmich, Joao Palhinha, Michael Olise, Jamal Musiala, Kingsley Coman – Harry Kane.
The starting line-ups for each team are based on their last match in this tournament.
St. Pauli
The club secured their second victory since returning to the Bundesliga (2 draws, 5 defeats), outplaying Hoffenheim with a 2-0 score in the last matchday. Notably, it was the second time this season that St. Pauli managed to keep a clean sheet in consecutive games. Despite scoring twice in their previous encounter, Alexander Blessin's charges remain the Bundesliga's least potent attack with just 7 goals. Thanks to their victory in the last round, the club has moved out of the relegation play-off zone, climbing to the 15th spot in the league table.
- In 7 of the previous 9 matches, at least one opponent failed to score against St. Pauli in the German championship.
- The team has won with a handicap (+1.5) in 5 of the last 6 Bundesliga encounters.
- St. Pauli's winless home streak in this tournament stands at 9 matches (2 draws, 7 defeats), with the team failing to score in the last 4.
Bayern Munich
The Munich side claimed their third consecutive comprehensive victory with a clean sheet in the Bundesliga, dealing with Union Berlin in their previous match (3-0). Following Leipzig's defeat in the last round, Bayern remains the only team in the current championship that hasn't left the field without points. Under the guidance of Vincent Kompany, they have 7 wins and 2 draws, allowing them to lead the Bundesliga table with a 3-point margin over the nearest pursuer. Bayern also continues to top the league's scoring charts, having netted 32 goals.
- The team has scored at least 3 times in 6 of their last 7 league matches.
- Away from home, the Munich side has gone 5 Bundesliga games without defeat (4 wins, 1 draw), scoring at least three times in each.
- There has been an exchange of goals in 10 of the last 12 away games for Bayern in Germany's top division.
St. Pauli vs. Bayern Munich: match prediction
Alexander Blessin's team managed to outplay Hoffenheim in the last round, albeit with a stroke of luck, as the hosts dominated the game and outperformed St. Pauli in almost all key statistical indicators. I don't believe luck alone can help the club overcome the upcoming opponent, who is the current championship leader. Moreover, Bayern has hit such stride that even teams from the upper echelons of the table are unable to stop them. In the last round, they confidently defeated Union Berlin, which has one of the most reliable defenses this Bundesliga season, and even they couldn't withstand the onslaught from Bayern.
Furthermore, St. Pauli has been particularly unsuccessful at home this season, earning just 2 of their 8 points in the league table within their own walls. Moreover, the team has failed to score in the last 4 home games in the Bundesliga. On the other hand, the Munich side is on a run of 3 consecutive clean-sheet victories in the league, winning by a combined score of 12:0.
Such an opponent is one that the championship leader should be able to beat comfortably. Especially since the Munich side has won by at least a 2-goal margin in 6 of their last 8 league encounters. Therefore, my prediction is for
Bayern Munich with a handicap (-1.5) at odds of 1.74.
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