The Matchday 1 Bundesliga encounter between St. Pauli and Borussia Dortmund will take place on August 23 at the Millerntor-Stadion in Hamburg. St. Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
St. Pauli
Last season, the club fought to maintain its place in the top German division and succeeded. St. Pauli finished 14th with 32 points, securing a three-point gap from Heidenheim, which participated in the relegation playoffs. However, towards the end of the previous Bundesliga season, the team struggled to deliver results, failing to win in their last five rounds (3 draws, 2 losses). It's also worth noting that St. Pauli scored the fewest goals in the last championship – 28 goals. During the summer, the club played seven friendly matches, suffering only one defeat (5 wins, 1 draw).
In the off-season, the team added defender Louis Oppi, midfielder Joel Chima Fujita, and forwards Andrea Untondji and Mathias Pereira Lage. Among the departures, defender Philipp Treu left the team.
- The club has not won in 7 of their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga (3 draws, 4 losses).
- Exactly 1 or 2 goals were scored in the previous eight home matches of the team in the championship.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 5 of St. Pauli's last 7 home matches in the Bundesliga.
Predicted lineup for St. Pauli (3-5-2)
Nikola Vasil – Hauke Wahl, Eric Smith, David Nemeth – Manolis Saliakas, James Sands, Danel Sinani, Joel Chima Fujita, Louis Oppi – Andrea Untondji, Mathias Pereira Lage.
Midfielder Jackson Irvine and forward Ricky-Jade Jones will miss the game due to injuries.
Borussia Dortmund
Last season, the team finished in fourth place, which they secured thanks to a strong finish: Borussia Dortmund won their last five rounds. As a result, the club accumulated 57 points and managed to surpass Freiburg by two points, earning a spot in the Champions League. However, the team did not perform well away from home in the last Bundesliga season and, in terms of goals conceded on the road (32), only outperformed the relegated Bochum (34) and Holstein Kiel (39). During the summer, Dortmund participated in the Club World Cup, reaching the quarter-finals, and also played three friendly matches (2 wins, 1 loss).
In the off-season, the club acquired defender Daniel Svensson and midfielder Job Bellingham. Meanwhile, forwards Youssoufa Moukoko, Jamie Gittens, and Sébastien Haller left the team.
- The team has not lost in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Bundesliga (5 wins, 1 draw).
- At least four goals were scored in the last four away matches of the club in the championship.
- Dortmund scored at least twice in 6 of their last 8 away matches in the Bundesliga.
Predicted lineup for Borussia Dortmund (3-5-2)
Gregor Kobel – Filippo Mane, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini – Julian Ryerson, Pascal Gross, Job Bellingham, Marcel Sabitzer, Daniel Svensson – Serhou Guirassy, Karim Adeyemi.
Defender Niklas Süle and forward Julien Duranville are unavailable due to injuries.
Referee
Matthias Jollenbeck (Germany)
Matches – 12 (Bundesliga, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 49;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.1;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 20;
Penalties – 17%.
Match Prediction: St. Pauli vs. Borussia Dortmund
Last season, St. Pauli showed weak results even in home matches. Over 17 home games in the previous Bundesliga season, the club secured only three wins and scored just ten goals. In their last seven home matches in the championship, the team suffered four defeats, including to the relegated Bochum. During this period, St. Pauli also lost to Dortmund (0-2).
Borussia did not shine away from home in the last Bundesliga season, but they significantly improved their results towards the end of the championship. In their last four away encounters in the league, the team secured three victories, defeating opponents like Bayer and Freiburg. Additionally, the only team they couldn't beat during this period was Bayern, the eventual champions, and Dortmund managed a draw in Munich (2-2).
I believe Niko Kovac's side can take all three points, so my prediction: Borussia Dortmund to win
