Adam Williams presents his prediction for the York 2m½f Weatherbys Lonsdale Cup Stakes (Group 2) (Class 1) (3yo+) horse racing event.
Quickthorn has not been seen on the track for almost two years. In September 2024, he won a conditions race at Salisbury before a series of problems kept him on the sidelines. He won this race by a wide margin in 2022, although he is considerably older now.
Columbus has moved from France to Ireland and is now trained by Willie Mullins. He began the year with a second place in a novice hurdle before heading to Ascot, where he finished only 11th in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race). He returned to jumps on his latest start and won a maiden hurdle at the Galway summer meeting. That should have put him in good shape for this assignment, and he could finish higher than his odds suggest.
Illinois is the sole representative for Aidan O'Brien this time and will be running on his own merits. His one victory from five starts this season came in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) at Royal Ascot, while his third place in the Ormonde Stakes (Group 3), won by stablemate Jan Brueghel, is also worth noting. He is capable of making his presence felt in this company.
Al Nayyir won his seasonal debut in the Nad Al Sheba Trophy (Group 3) at Meydan and returned there a month later to finish third in the Dubai Gold Cup (Group 2). He also ran well in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2), finishing second. His latest appearance produced a seventh place in the Gold Cup (Group 1) at Ascot, which can be considered a respectable result given that he was at the bottom of the betting. Against this field, he looks more of a middle ranking contender with only a limited chance of victory.
Amiloc has endured a difficult season. He has finished sixth twice, first in the Yorkshire Cup Stakes (Group 2), where he was favourite, and then in the Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2). In the Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1), he unseated his jockey immediately after the start and later interfered with Trawlerman in the home straight, which may have had a bearing on the outcome of the race. This can effectively be regarded as his first proper attempt over two miles.
Mount Atlas has yet to race over this trip. He has been performing consistently, finishing second in both the Goliath Cup Stakes (Listed Race) and the Ormonde Stakes (Group 3). He then made two appearances at York, finishing third in the Grand Cup Stakes (Listed Race) before winning the Silver Cup Stakes (Group 3) on his latest start, beating favourite Tabletalk by a head. This is stronger company than he is accustomed to facing.
Caballo De Mar finished second in both the Dubai Gold Cup (Group 2) and the Sagaro Stakes (Group 3), going down by a short head in the latter. He then won the Prix Vicomtesse Vigier (Group 1) at Longchamp in an extremely tight five horse finish. He suffered from heat stress in the Gold Cup (Group 1) at Ascot and finished last. If everything goes smoothly this time, he is one of the leading contenders for victory.
French Master is racing as a gelding this year and remains without a win, although he came close in the Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) at Ascot, where Illinois beat him by a neck. He also finished third in the Jockey Club Stakes (Group 2) earlier in the season, while fourth place in the Goodwood Cup Stakes (Group 1) on his latest start can certainly be regarded as a strong effort. Last year at York, he finished second last of 22 runners in the Ebor Handicap (Heritage Handicap).
Carmers began his season with fifth place in the Vintage Crop Stakes (Listed Race) before winning the two mile His Majesty's Plate (Listed Race). He acquitted himself well at the highest level in the Gold Cup (Group 1) at Ascot, finishing sixth. Last year, he was runner up in the Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group 2) at York. After that demanding test at Ascot, this assignment should be more manageable, and he looks an interesting option against these rivals at 11/2 with William Hill.
