Adam Williams presents his prediction for the UFC 307 fight.
Mario Bautista
At the start of the bout, Bautista will throw numerous jabs and middle kicks to gradually increase the pace. With long overhands, he will force Aldo to raise his guard, allowing Bautista to target his opponent's body with single hooks. When José breaks away, Mario will follow up with a high kick. In close, Bautista will immediately launch a sharp elbow and briefly work in the clinch. If Mario manages to wobble José, he will attempt a sweep or trip. Bautista won't hesitate to engage in grappling during exchanges. On the ground, he'll look for a submission or a reliable position for control. Taking down the veteran won't be easy, so Mario will quickly switch to striking if the initial takedown fails.
José Aldo
José will employ plenty of feints to disrupt his opponent’s attacks and evade strikes. Once he figures out what to expect from Mario, he'll attack with heavy body and head shots. Aldo's powerful low kicks will help him manage the distance, and he'll occasionally mix in a strong cross. The Brazilian will block powerful shots and counter with rapid double kicks. Aldo will seek to thwart his opponent's attacks and strike at unexpected moments. He'll let Bautista get to work early in each round before launching his own short combinations.
Betting Odds
Bookmakers favour the younger fighter, who matches the veteran in skills and surpasses him in motivation. The odds for a Bautista win are 7/10.
José successfully rebounded after his loss to Merab Dvalishvili, but his former quickness and explosiveness seem to be lacking. Betting on an Aldo victory offers odds of 11/10.
Mario Bautista vs José Aldo Prediction
The first round promises scarce exchanges, with Aldo likely taking it due to his takedown defence and solid defensive movement in stand-up. The second round should belong to Bautista, who will deliver more kicks and figure out how to break down the veteran from a distance. Mario is very strong and has decent endurance, so by incorporating wrestling in the final round, he is likely to win on points. Bautista may not match the Brazilian's punching power, so he’ll avoid unnecessary brawls. Since his only knockout loss, Mario has become more cautious and smarter in choosing his distance. He is our favourite in this fight.
