The Matchday 1 encounter of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Ajax (Netherlands) and Inter Milan (Italy) will be held on September 17 at the Johan Cruyff Arena in Amsterdam. Ajax vs. Inter Milan: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Ajax
The team qualified for the group stage thanks to their second-place finish in last season's Dutch Championship. Ajax will be playing in the main draw of the Champions League for the first time in three years, although they participated in the group stage of this European competition for five consecutive seasons before that. The club's best achievement in the Champions League in the 21st century was reaching the semi-finals in the 2018/19 season. Notably, in their last five matches in this tournament, the Amsterdam team suffered four defeats, conceding 16 goals in this span. Additionally, Ajax has failed to win in their last seven European matches against Italian teams (2 draws, 5 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of the last 6 home matches of the team in the Champions League.
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 90 minutes in 6 of the last 8 home matches of the club in this European competition.
- The Amsterdam team has not conceded more than one goal in regular time in 11 of their last 14 home matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Ajax (4-5-1)
Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Goei, Ko Itakura, Jurrien Timber, Owen Wijndal – Raul Moro, Kian Fitz-Jim, Steven Berghuis, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Wout Weghorst.
Defender Aaron Bouman and midfielder Branco van den Boomen will miss the match due to injuries.
Inter Milan
The Milan team finished second in last season's Serie A, earning a direct spot in the group stage of the Champions League. Inter will participate in the main draw of this European competition for the eighth consecutive season, and in the previous Champions League, the team reached the final, where they suffered a heavy defeat to PSG (0-5). It is worth noting that the club has not won in regular time in their last four matches in this tournament (3 draws, 1 loss) and conceded 13 goals in this period. Additionally, Inter has not lost to Dutch opponents in 13 matches (9 wins, 4 draws).
- The team has not lost in regular time in 9 of their last 11 away matches in the Champions League (5 wins, 4 draws).
- At least one of the opponents failed to score in 90 minutes in 5 of the last 7 away matches of the club in this European competition.
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of the last 7 away matches of the Milan team in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Inter Milan (3-5-2)
Yann Sommer – Manuel Akanji, Francesco Acerbi, Alessandro Bastoni – Denzel Dumfries, Petar Sucic, Nicolo Barella, Hakan Calhanoglu, Federico Dimarco – Lautaro Martinez, Marcus Thuram.
Referee
Michael Oliver (England)
Matches – 19 (International matches, 2024/25);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 77;
Average yellow cards per match – 4;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 32%.
Ajax vs. Inter Milan: Match Prediction
The Amsterdam team has had mixed success at home in recent Champions League matches but has often been able to effectively contain their opponents' attacks. In their last 14 home matches in this European competition, Ajax has conceded more than one goal in only three games, and in five instances, they managed to keep a clean sheet.
Inter impressed with their defensive play in the previous Champions League campaign, though not showing high scoring prowess, and only in the playoffs did they show progress in attack. Overall, in their last 11 away matches in this tournament, the team has scored more than one goal in only four matches, and twice in this period, they failed to score at all. Notably, the Milan team scored a maximum of one goal in matches against not the most highly-rated opponents, such as Sparta Prague and Young Boys.
I expect a solid defensive performance from Ajax, and my prediction: Inter Individual Total Under 1.5
