The Matchday 1 clash in the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Liverpool (England) and Atletico Madrid (Spain) will take place on September 17 at Anfield. Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Liverpool
The Premier League champions for the 8th time in the last 8 years will compete in the Champions League. During this period, Liverpool has won the tournament once (in 2019) and reached the final twice (in 2018 and 2022). Last season, Arne Slot's side won the group stage, securing 7 victories with 1 defeat. However, they could not advance past the Round of 16, losing to the eventual Champions League winners PSG (1-0 and 0-1, extra time 0-0, on penalties 1-4). Notably, the club is a primary favorite to win this tournament.
- The English team has won in regular time in 8 of their last 10 matches in this European competition.
- Liverpool has not drawn in 21 consecutive Champions League matches after 90 minutes (15 wins and 6 losses).
- At least one team failed to score in regular time in 7 of Liverpool's last 9 games in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Liverpool (3-4-3)
Alisson Becker – Milos Kerkez, Ibrahima Konate, Virgil van Dijk – Alexis Mac Allister, Dominik Szoboszlai, Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch – Mohamed Salah, Florian Wirtz, Hugo Ekitike.
Curtis Jones is doubtful for the match due to injury.
Atletico Madrid
The Spanish club enters their 13th consecutive European season starting from the Champions League group stage. This time, Atletico reached the group stage by finishing 3rd in La Liga. During this period, the team reached the finals twice (in 2014 and 2016). Last season, Atletico finished 6th in the group stage standings, recording 6 wins and 2 losses. However, they failed to progress past the Round of 16, losing to their local rivals Real Madrid on aggregate (1-2 and 1-0, extra time 0-0, on penalties 2-4).
- The team has won in regular time in 6 of their last 7 games in this European competition.
- Atletico's uncompromising streak after 90 minutes in this tournament stands at 17 matches (12 wins and 5 losses).
- At least 3 goals were scored in regular time in 12 of Atletico's last 13 Champions League matches.
Predicted lineup for Atletico Madrid (3-4-3)
Jan Oblak – David Gantzko, Robin Le Normand, Clement Lenglet – Joao Cardoso, Pablo Barrios, Thiago Almada, Marcos Llorente – Giuliano Simeone, Antoine Griezmann, Alexander Sorloth.
Julian Alvarez, Jose Maria Gimenez, and midfielders Alex Baena and Thiago Almada are sidelined due to injuries.
Referee
Maurizio Mariani (Italy)
Matches – 14 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 47;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.4;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 22;
Penalties – 36%.
Liverpool vs. Atletico Madrid: Match Prediction
Both opponents are regular participants in the Champions League and consistently advance to the playoffs, favoring decisive outcomes in this European competition. In the upcoming match, I favor the English side, who are strong at home in both the Champions League and the Premier League. Liverpool has won 7 of their last 9 home matches in this tournament, losing only to PSG and Real Madrid.
Atletico has not often delivered positive results on the road. In their last 14 away Champions League matches, Atletico has only 4 wins (2 draws and 8 losses). Additionally, even in La Liga, Diego Simeone's team struggles away from home, with just 1 win in their last 6 matches (2 draws and 3 losses).
It is also worth noting that in the 2021/22 season, the opponents faced each other in the Champions League group stage, and Liverpool won both encounters – 3-2 and 2-0. Therefore, my prediction is Liverpool to Win.
