Matchday 2 of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Marseille (France) and Ajax (Netherlands) will take place on September 30 at the Velodrome Stadium. Marseille vs. Ajax: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Marseille
In the previous Champions League round, the team put up a fight against Real Madrid: the French side took the lead in the middle of the first half but eventually lost, conceding the decisive goal shortly before the final whistle. Thus, Marseille failed to keep a clean sheet in five consecutive matches in this European competition, with four of these games ending in defeat. The club's uncompromising streak in the Champions League now stands at 27 matches (6 wins, 21 losses). In terms of standings, Marseille is in 25th place in the overall group stage table.
- Both teams scored in regular time in 5 of Marseille's last 7 Champions League matches.
- The French team won with a +1.5 handicap in 8 previous matches in this tournament.
- The club has conceded at least one goal in regular time in their last 11 Champions League encounters.
Predicted lineup for Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Geronimo Rulli – Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Leonardo Balerdi, Facundo Medina – Matt O'Riley, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Angel Gomes, Timothy Weah – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Midfielders Geoffrey Kondogbia and Amad Traore are injured.
Ajax
The start of the European season was unsuccessful for the club: Ajax couldn't contain Inter, losing without scoring due to two goals from Milan's set pieces. That defeat was Ajax's fifth in their last six Champions League games. The team has conceded in six consecutive matches in this tournament, with at least two goals conceded in five of these six games. In the overall group stage standings, the club occupies the 31st position.
- Ajax scored in regular time in 12 of their last 15 Champions League matches.
- The Amsterdam club's uncompromising streak in this tournament is 8 games (2 wins, 6 losses).
- Both teams scored in regular time in Ajax's last 7 away matches in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Ajax (4-3-3)
Vitezslav Jaros – Anton Goei, Ko Itakura, Jurrien Timber, Owen Wijndal – Davy Klaassen, Kenneth Taylor, Oscar Gloukh – Oliver Edvardsen, Mika Godts, Wout Weghorst.
Midfielders Branco van den Boomen and James McConnell are sidelined due to injuries. Forward Kasper Dolberg is also doubtful for the same reason.
Referee
Anthony Taylor (England)
Matches – 13 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 51;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.9;
Red cards shown – 1;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 38%.
Marseille vs. Ajax: Match Prediction
Both teams lack consistency in their results, but matches involving these sides often feature a lot of goals. For instance, Marseille has won only 3 of their last 7 Champions League encounters in regular time, but at least 3 goals were scored in 5 of those 7 matches. The same 3-goal mark was reached in 8 of Marseille's last 10 home games in this European competition.
Looking at Ajax's performances, the trend is even more pronounced. At least 3 goals were scored in 6 of Ajax's last 7 Champions League games. When the club plays away, it's almost a guarantee of an exciting spectacle. In Ajax's last 7 away matches in the Champions League, we saw at least 3 goals, with 4 or more goals scored in 5 of those 7 encounters.
My prediction: Total over 2.5 goals
