The Matchday 1 fixture of the 2025/26 Europa League group stage between Midtjylland (Denmark) and Sturm (Austria) will take place on September 24 at the MCH Arena in Herning. Midtjylland vs. Sturm: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Midtjylland
Thomas Thomasberg's side started from the second qualifying round of the Europa League, overcoming Hibernian (1-1, 0-0, extra time 2-1), Fredrikstad (3-1, 2-0), and KuPS (4-0, 2-0). As a result, Midtjylland will participate in the Europa League group stage for the fourth time in the last five seasons, with their best achievement during this period being reaching the playoff matches (twice). Notably, the Danes have not conceded a single goal in their last three matches in this European competition.
- The team has not lost in 6 of their last 8 home matches in the Europa League (3 wins, 3 draws).
- The players have scored exactly 1 or 2 goals in 7 of their last 8 home games in this competition.
- The Danes have not conceded more than one goal in regular time in their last six Europa League matches.
Predicted lineup for Midtjylland (3-5-2)
Elias Olafsson – Usman Diao, Martin Erlic, Mads Bech Sorensen – Adam Gabriel, Denil Castillo, Philip Billing, Aral Simsir, Viktor Bak Jensen – Junior Brumado, Franculino.
Midfielder Dani Silva, as well as forwards Mikel Gogorsa and Dario Osorio, are unavailable due to injuries.
Sturm
The club reached the Europa League group stage after being eliminated in the Champions League playoff round, losing to Bodo/Glimt on aggregate (0-5, 2-1). Consequently, Sturm will play in the Europa League group stage for the fourth time in the last five seasons, but in all previous instances during this period, the team failed to advance to the playoffs. Notably, the Austrians have not won in 6 of their last 7 matches in this European competition (1 draw, 5 losses).
- The club has not won in 8 of their last 9 away matches in the Europa League (2 draws, 6 losses).
- The team has not scored in 5 of their last 7 away games in this competition.
- The Austrians have conceded at least two goals in 5 of their last 7 away Europa League matches.
Predicted lineup for Sturm (4-3-3)
Oliver Christensen – Tim Erman, Emanuel Aiwu, Dimitri Lavalee, Emir Karic – Jon Gorenc-Stankovic, Filip Rosga, Tochi Chukwuani – Tomi Horvat, Sidi Jatta, Maurice Malone.
Defender Arjan Malic will not play due to injury.
Referee
Orel Grinfeld (Israel)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 42;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.7;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 25;
Penalties – 22%.
Match Prediction: Midtjylland vs. Sturm
Even at home, the Danes do not always excel in attacking play. While Midtjylland scores regularly, they do not boast high scoring figures: in the last nine home matches in the Europa League, the team has only surpassed one goal three times. Meanwhile, their defense looks solid, having conceded just one goal in three home matches in this season's European competition.
The Austrians struggle on the road in European competitions, rarely achieving positive results. Their creative play is particularly lacking: in the last nine away Europa League matches, Sturm has scored only four goals in total, two of which came while playing with a numerical advantage. However, in 9 of their last 11 away matches in this competition, the club has not conceded more than two goals.
I do not anticipate a high-scoring match, so my prediction: Total under 3.5 goals
