The Matchday 1 encounter of the 2025/26 UEFA Champions League group stage between Olympiacos (Greece) and Pafos (Cyprus) will take place on September 17 at the Karaiskakis Stadium in Piraeus. Olympiacos vs. Pafos: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Olympiacos
After three years, the team from Piraeus won their national championship and secured a direct spot in the main round of the elite European club competition. The last time they directly entered the autumn stage of the Champions League was exactly 10 years ago. In the group stage of this tournament, the Greeks last played in the 2020/21 season, but with only one win and five losses, Olympiacos failed to advance to the playoffs. It's also worth noting that the club's winless streak in the Champions League stands at four matches (3 draws and 1 loss).
- The club has secured only 2 wins in regular time in their last 11 matches in this European competition (3 draws and 6 losses).
- No more than two goals have been scored in 90 minutes in 7 of Olympiacos's last 8 home games in the Champions League.
- The Greeks have not scored more than 1 goal in regular time in their last 6 home matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Olympiacos (4-2-3-1)
Alexandros Paschalakis – Costinha, Panagiotis Retsos, Julian Biancone, Francisco Ortega – Christos Mouzakitis, Santiago Esse – Gelson Martins, Chiquinho, Rémy Cabella – Ayoub El Kaabi.
Main goalkeeper Konstantinos Tzolakis is suspended for this game.
Pafos
Last season, the club won the national championship for the first time in its short history, earning a spot in the second qualifying round of the Champions League. Interestingly, a year earlier, the Cypriots debuted in European competitions and even reached the round of 16 in the Conference League. This season, they will play in the main stage of the Champions League for the first time. Juan Carlos Carcedo's side confidently overcame three experienced European opponents: Maccabi Tel Aviv, Dynamo Kyiv, and Crvena Zvezda, without suffering a single defeat (4 wins and 2 draws).
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 5 of the Greeks' last 6 Champions League matches.
- Pafos is on a 3-match winning streak in regular time away in this tournament.
- The team has scored in regular time in 7 of their last 8 away matches in European competitions.
Predicted lineup for Pafos (4-3-3)
Neofytos Michael – David Gomez Goldar, Derrick Luckassen, Bruno Langa, Bruno – Ivan Sunjic, Vlad Dragomir, Pepe Rodrigues – Mislav Orsic, Joao Correia, Anderson Oliveira Silva.
Referee
Istvan Kovacs (Romania)
Matches – 15 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 48;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.2;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 23;
Penalties – 20%.
Match Prediction: Olympiacos vs. Pafos
The Cypriots are debuting in the autumn stage of the Champions League. The team will find it much more challenging in the group stage than in the tournament's qualification, but the islanders have already proven they are not afraid of renowned opponents. This summer, Pafos unexpectedly and confidently, like an experienced European mid-table team, dealt with not-so-weak opponents without losing once. It's also worth noting that in 6 Champions League qualification matches, the Cypriots never conceded more than 1 goal.
The Greeks have waited five years to return to the main round of the Champions League. I believe they will find it difficult not only against the top teams but also against opponents like the islanders. If Olympiacos does win this match, it is unlikely to be a convincing victory. After all, the Piraeus team has not won by a margin of two or more goals in this European competition for 13 consecutive matches. At home, they have only one such victory in their last 10 Champions League games.
My prediction – Pafos with a handicap (+1.5)
