Ahead of the final round of the Copa Libertadores group stage, Palmeiras suffered a defeat to Flamengo in Serie A. However, this setback is unlikely to prevent Palmeiras from overcoming Sporting Cristal, a team that currently does not feature in the top five of their domestic league.
There is no shame in losing to a long-standing rival. Flamengo were trailing Palmeiras by just four points and sat directly below them in the standings. Up until the 10th round, Palmeiras had recorded only one defeat and led the Brazilian championship. They were not outplayed; in fact, Palmeiras outperformed their opponents on several key statistics: 1.98–1.67 in xG, three big chances to two, 13 shots to seven. Their only shortcoming was finishing. Both teams registered three shots on target, but while Flamengo converted 66.7% of theirs, Palmeiras failed to score. In the Copa Libertadores, Palmeiras have been flawless. They are the only team in the group to have maintained a perfect record, scoring at least two goals in four of their five matches.
Sporting Cristal, by contrast, sit third in the group with four points, all of which were earned in two away fixtures. Even in those matches, they showed vulnerability—rescuing a draw against Cerro Porteño only in the 92nd minute. In the Peruvian Primera División, Sporting Cristal are currently eighth, four points behind the leaders, despite finishing as runners-up last season.
The reverse fixture in Lima ended in a narrow but high-scoring 3:2 victory for Palmeiras. We are confident that the number of chances Palmeiras are able to create—even against top teams like Flamengo—will allow the home team to claim the win and reward their supporters with a strong attacking display.
