The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Real Madrid (Spain) and Marseille (France) will take place on September 16 at the Santiago Bernabeu Stadium. Real Madrid vs. Marseille: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Real Madrid
The Madrid side has not missed the main stage of the Champions League this century. In this edition, they participate as the runners-up of the Spanish La Liga. Notably, in the last three years, the club has won this tournament twice. In the previous campaign, Real finished only 11th in the group stage (5 wins and 3 losses). They then overcame Manchester City and city rivals Atletico but were halted by Arsenal in the quarter-finals (1-2 and 0-3).
- The team's uncompromising streak in regular time in this tournament stands at 16 matches (10 wins and 6 losses).
- At least three goals have been scored in 8 of Real's last 9 Champions League games.
- Two or more goals have been scored in the second half in 8 of the last 10 encounters for the Spaniards in this European competition.
Predicted lineup for Real Madrid (4-4-2)
Thibaut Courtois – Alvaro Carreras, Dean Heysen, Eder Militao, Trent Alexander-Arnold – Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Güler, Franco Mastantuono – Kylian Mbappe, Vinicius Junior.
Forward Endrick Felipe, defenders Antonio Rudiger and Ferland Mendy, as well as midfielders Eduardo Camavinga and Jude Bellingham, will miss the game due to injuries.
Marseille
Roberto De Zerbi's team qualified for the main stage of the Champions League by finishing second in Ligue 1. Over the last five years, the club has made it to this European competition four times, but has only played in the group stage twice, failing to progress further. Last year, the French did not participate in European competitions. However, the season before, starting from the 3rd qualifying round of the Champions League, they only managed to reach the autumn stage of the Europa League and eventually reached the semi-finals. An interesting fact to note is that Marseille has a 26-match uncompromising streak in the Champions League (6 wins and 20 losses).
- Exactly two or three goals were scored in regular time in 10 of Marseille's last 13 matches in this European competition.
- The French have lost in regular time in 11 of their last 12 away games in the Champions League.
- The team has conceded at least two goals in regular time in 10 of their last 13 away matches in this tournament.
Predicted lineup for Marseille (4-2-3-1)
Geronimo Rulli – Amir Murillo, Benjamin Pavard, Nayef Aguerd, Facundo Medina – Angel Gomes, Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg – Mason Greenwood, Bilal Nadir, Amad Traore – Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang.
Referee
Irfan Peljto (Bosnia and Herzegovina)
Matches – 18 (International matches, 2024/25–2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 65;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.6;
Red cards shown – 5;
Average fouls per match – 21;
Penalties – 50%.
Match Prediction: Real Madrid vs. Marseille
The Champions League is awaited in Madrid with as much anticipation as the Spanish "El Clasico." Last season, Real was only able to reach the quarter-final stage, which is considered nearly a failure for them. Carlo Ancelotti will not let this fact be disputed. Now, the Madrid side is ready to compete for the title of Europe's best under Xabi Alonso.
With their new coach, Real has only won in the new season – 4 victories in La Liga. It's also worth noting that the Spanish club is very strong at home, having won 15 of their last 20 home Champions League matches in regular time. Meanwhile, the French cannot boast consistent participation in this European competition, and their performance in the Champions League is mostly disappointing. This is especially true for away games, where Marseille has lost 11 of their last 12 matches.
I believe the hosts will secure a confident victory. Marseille consistently concedes a lot of goals away in the Champions League and often fails to score, as was the case in 6 of their last 8 matches. Considering the attacking potential of the Madrid team, it's worth paying attention to the handicap of the Spaniards.
My prediction – Real Madrid with a handicap of (-1.5)
