The second leg of the Copa Libertadores 2025 quarter-final between Sao Paulo (Brazil) and LDU Quito (Ecuador) will take place on September 26 at the Morumbi Stadium. The first match ended 2-0 in favor of LDU Quito. Sao Paulo vs. LDU Quito: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Sao Paulo
As expected, the first meeting was quite challenging for the Brazilians. The match exceeded all concerns, and Hernan Crespo's side fell 0-2. Although the Ecuadorians did not surpass Sao Paulo in any aspect, the xG was slightly in favor of the visitors – 0.69:0.71. As a result, the club's 17-match unbeaten streak in this tournament came to an end – 9 wins and 8 draws. Now, to advance to the semi-finals, Sao Paulo needs a big win at home.
- No more than two goals have been scored in regular time in 6 of the last 7 matches for the Brazilians in the Copa Libertadores.
- Sao Paulo has a 12-match unbeaten streak at home in this tournament over 90 minutes (5 wins and 7 draws).
- Both teams have scored in the last five home matches for the club in regular time in the Copa Libertadores.
Predicted lineup for Sao Paulo (5-4-1)
Enrique Rafael – Nahuel Ferraresi, Robert Arboleda, Alan Javier Franco, Cedric Soares, Enzo Hernan Diaz – Damian Bobadilla, Marcos Antonio, Pablo Maia, Emiliano Rigoni – Luciano.
LDU Quito
The team has once again proven that they can handle any opponent on their home turf. Thanks to excellent defensive play at home (6 consecutive clean sheets in the Copa Libertadores), the Ecuadorians have reached this late stage of the tournament. To advance to the next round of the Copa Libertadores, LDU Quito can even afford a narrow loss in the return leg. If the defeat is by two goals, a penalty shootout will be held.
- At least one team failed to score in regular time in the club's last five matches in this tournament.
- A maximum of two goals were scored over 90 minutes in 9 of the last 11 games for LDU Quito in the Copa Libertadores.
- The Ecuadorians have only won 1 match in regular time in their last 10 away matches in the Copa Libertadores (4 draws and 5 losses).
Predicted lineup for LDU Quito (5-3-2)
Gonzalo Valle – Leonel Quinonez, Gianfranco Ayalala, Ricardo Ade, Bryan Ramirez, Jose Quinteros – Fernando Cornejo, Carlos Gruezo, Gabriel Villamil – Jaison Medina, Lisandro Alzugaray.
Referee
Alexis Herrera (Venezuela)
Matches – 9 (International matches, 2025);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 42;
Average yellow cards per match – 4.7;
Red cards shown – 3;
Average fouls per match – 26;
Penalties – 44%.
Sao Paulo vs. LDU Quito: Match Prediction
Hernan Crespo's side were considered clear favorites in this matchup, but LDU Quito demonstrated why the Ecuadorian national team confidently qualified for the World Cup, being the best in the South American qualifiers in defense. Thiago Nunes' side plays in a similar style, and scoring against them, especially at their stadium, is simply unrealistic. There is no doubt that in the return leg, the Ecuadorians will try to defend very carefully, possibly not even attempting to threaten the opponent's goal.
I predict that the visitors, if they lose, will not do so by more than one goal. Sao Paulo has not been able to win with a convincing margin in their last five consecutive home Copa Libertadores matches (4 draws and 1 win with a score of 2-1). It's also worth noting that although the Ecuadorians are weak away, they have only lost by two or more goals once in their last 8 away matches in this tournament.
My prediction – LDU Quito with a handicap (+1.5)
