The Matchday 1 clash of the 2025/26 Champions League group stage between Sporting (Portugal) and Kairat (Kazakhstan) will take place on September 18 at the Estádio José Alvalade in Lisbon. Sporting vs. Kairat: prediction and betting odds, statistics.
Sporting
The team qualified for the main stage of the Champions League by winning the last Portuguese championship. Sporting will test their mettle in this tournament for the fourth time in five seasons. Their best achievement in this period was reaching the Round of 16. They could have repeated this in the 2024/25 Champions League, but Rui Borges' side lost to Borussia Dortmund in the playoffs (0-3, 0-0). Thus, the club's winless streak in this tournament has reached six matches (2 draws, 4 losses).
- Both teams scored in 5 of Sporting's last 7 Champions League games.
- The team conceded in 6 of their last 7 home matches in the Champions League.
- At home in this tournament, Sporting has not won in 5 of their last 7 matches (1 draw, 4 losses).
Predicted lineup for Sporting (3-5-2)
João Virgínia – Georgios Vagiannidis, Gonçalo Inácio, Zeno Debast – Ricardo Mangas, Morten Hjulmand, Giorgi Kochorashvili, Maximiliano Araújo, Pedro Gonçalves – Luis Suárez, Francisco Trincão.
Injured players include midfielders Geny Catamo, Hidemasa Morita, Daniel Bragança, defender Ousmane Diomande, and forward Nuno Santos.
Kairat
The Kazakh club will participate in the main stage of the Champions League for the first time in its history. After winning the last KPL, Rafael Urazbakhtin's team started their Champions League journey from the first qualifying round. Ultimately, Kairat progressed past Olimpija Ljubljana (1-1, 2-0), KuPS (0-2, 3-0), Slovan Bratislava (1-0, 0-1, extra time 0-0, penalties 4-3), and after two goalless matches, they defeated Celtic in a penalty shootout. Kazakh teams have not been in European competitions since the 2022/23 season, when the club played only one round in the Conference League, losing to Kisvárda.
- The team has not conceded more than one goal in their last 5 Champions League matches.
- On the road in this tournament, Kairat has not won in 6 matches (3 draws, 3 losses).
- No more than two goals were scored in 5 of Kairat's last 6 away games in the Champions League.
Predicted lineup for Kairat (4-3-3)
Sherkhan Kalmyrza – Aleksandr Martynovich, Yegor Sorokin, Aleksandr Mrinsky, Erkin Tapalov – Valeriy Gromyko, Ofri Arad, Dan Glazer – Edmilson Filho, Jorginho Costa, Dastan Satpayev.
Goalkeepers Aleksandr Zarutsky and Temirlan Anarbekov, as well as midfielder Giorgi Zaria, are injured.
Referee
Damian Sylwestrzak (Poland)
Matches – 7 (International matches, 2025/26);
Yellow cards shown (including second yellows) – 26;
Average yellow cards per match – 3.7;
Red cards shown – 0;
Average fouls per match – 24;
Penalties – 71%.
Sporting vs. Kairat: Match Prediction
Kairat has given their country a reason to celebrate, becoming only the second Kazakh representative in the main round of the Champions League. Rafael Urazbakhtin's team faces a tough challenge, with their first opponent being an experienced European competitor. I think the team will play defensively on the road. Even one point away would be a good result for Kairat. In the qualifiers for this Champions League, the Kazakh team scored only one goal in four away games but conceded just four goals in total.
It will be tough for the Portuguese to break through a solid defense. Although Sporting scores regularly, they do not show exceptionally high results. The team has not scored more than three times in 19 of their last 21 home Champions League matches, often limiting themselves to just 1 or 2 goals. It will be very difficult to defeat a resilient opponent.
My prediction: Sporting Individual Total Under 3.5
