Heading into Thursday’s encounter, the United Arab Emirates trail Uzbekistan by four points in the standings. They must secure a victory and hope for further slip-ups from their rivals. Playing at home, the UAE are expected to dominate possession, which could open up opportunities for Uzbekistan to strike on the counter.
After convincing wins over Kyrgyzstan (3:0) and Qatar (5:0), the United Arab Emirates broke into the top three. However, a 0:2 defeat to Iran exposed their limitations and indicated that direct qualification for the 2026 World Cup remains out of reach for now. In Tehran, the team conceded three times from 1.51 xGA from eight shots on target — their 5-4-1 formation failed to withstand the pressure. At home, the UAE have managed only two wins from their last eight matches over the past year.
Despite a narrow 2:3 loss to Qatar in November, Uzbekistan are enjoying an outstanding campaign with minimal dropped points. They overcame Kyrgyzstan (1:0) with a composed display in the penultimate round, and then earned a valuable 2:2 draw away in Iran — only a brace from Mehdi Taremi denied them all three points. The attacking trio of Eldor Shomurodov, Abbosbek Fayzullaev and Umarali Rakhmonaliev are expected to lead the charge in June as Uzbekistan aim to secure qualification for the 2026 World Cup.
In the fourth round of qualification, the United Arab Emirates were undone by a red card to Abdulla Hamad, after which Uzbekistan took the lead through a penalty converted by Otabek Shukurov (1:0). In Abu Dhabi, Uzbekistan are again likely to be more clinical with their chances, making their handicap (0) a reliable option.