Simon Dalton presents his prediction for the Australian Open match.
Aryna Sabalenka is steadily progressing towards her third consecutive Australian Open title, already securing 18 victories on these courts. The world number one is in impeccable form this season and stands as the tournament's leading contender. For Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, reaching the quarter-finals marks a significant breakthrough after her return from injury. She has not only recovered but has also returned to a high level, navigating a difficult draw.
Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is having a fantastic season, with nine consecutive wins, including a trophy in Brisbane. At the Australian Open, she has been dominant. Against Mirra Andreeva (6:1, 6:2), Aryna won 67% of her first serve points and committed only 11 unforced errors. However, her match against Clara Tauson (7:6, 6:4) revealed potential challenges with powerful attacking opponents, as her winners-to-errors ratio was 39-25. The Belarusian has defeated top-50 players on hardcourt majors five times in a row, although in three instances, the margin did not exceed five games.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
The Russian has returned to top-level competition following her injury and is pleasantly surprising—holding a 20-11 record on hardcourts since the start of last season. At this tournament, Anastasia has beaten Yuan Yue, Anastasia Potapova, Laura Siegemund, and Donna Vekić. Against Vekić (7:6, 6:0), she produced impressive stats: 69% first serve success with a 72% conversion, 10 aces, and 38 winners against just 21 errors. Pavlyuchenkova performs well against strong opponents: in her career, she has maintained a handicap of +6.5 in her last six hardcourt matches against top-10 players. Although she has lost in seven out of eight Grand Slam quarter-finals, nearly all those defeats were closely contested.
Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova Prediction
Sabalenka is the clear favourite in the match, but Pavlyuchenkova is an experienced player who knows how to compete. Aryna typically does not rout opponents who play an attacking style. Meanwhile, Anastasia has shown that she can maintain focus and compete fiercely, even against top players. Therefore, we'll bet on a win for Pavlyuchenkova with a handicap.
