Odds overview
Real Madrid are favourites: a Real Madrid win is available at around 1.87, compared with 3.70 for an AS Roma win and 4.10 for a draw. Over 2.5 goals is offered at 1.40, while Under 2.5 goals is 2.73. In the handicap market, Real Madrid Draw No Bet (0) at 1.47 is favoured over AS Roma Draw No Bet (0) at 2.51.
Why Real Madrid are favourites
A Real Madrid win is offered at 1.87, an AS Roma win at 3.70 and a draw at 4.10.
- Real Madrid's UEFA Champions League matches have been high scoring: Over 2.5 goals has landed in nine of their last 10 matches in the competition.
- AS Roma have avoided defeat in nine of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
Form and Line-up AS Roma
AS Roma are unbeaten this season but go into the match against Real Madrid without a win in two games — they drew with Inter Milan in Rome before a 0:0 draw away to Como.
AS Roma drew 1:1 with Fenerbahce in Turkey in the first round of the UEFA Champions League league phase.
- AS Roma have scored at least two goals in eight of their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- AS Roma are unbeaten in their last 10 home matches across all competitions.
- More than two goals have been scored in eight of AS Roma's last 10 matches across all competitions.
Probable AS Roma line-up: Pierluigi Gollini, Nahuel Molina, Gianluca Mancini, Evan N'Dicka, Mario Hermoso, Wesley, Kouadio Koné, Marten de Roon, Lorenzo Pellegrini, Paulo Dybala, Donyell Malen.
Form and Line-up Real Madrid
After the international break, Real Madrid beat Villarreal by a single goal in La Liga. They have looked unconvincing away from home in the 2026/27 season, with two defeats, including a 1:2 loss to Atlético Madrid in the Madrid derby, and two wins by a one-goal margin.
- Real Madrid have committed fewer than 12.5 fouls in nine of their last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- More than 9.5 shots on target have been recorded in nine of Real Madrid's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
- Fewer than 3.5 offsides have been recorded in eight of Real Madrid's last 10 away matches in the UEFA Champions League.
Probable Real Madrid line-up (4-2-3-1): Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Ibrahima Konaté, Antonio Rüdiger, Álvaro Carreras, Federico Valverde, Aurelien Tchouameni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, Yan Diomande, Kylian Mbappé.
The teams' chances
The average odds for an AS Roma win, a draw and a Real Madrid win are 3.70, 4.10 and 1.87 respectively. The fair odds are 3.88, 4.30 and 1.96, corresponding to probabilities of 25.8%, 23.3% and 51%.
| Outcome | Average odds | Average fair odds | Probability without margin |
|---|---|---|---|
| AS Roma win | 3.70 | 3.88 | 25.8% |
| Draw | 4.10 | 4.30 | 23.3% |
| Real Madrid win | 1.87 | 1.96 | 51.0% |
Total goals prediction
Over 2.5 goals at 1.40 is a much shorter option than Under 2.5 goals at 2.73. On the 2-goal line, Over is 1.15 against 4.55 for Under, while the odds on the 3.5-goal line are almost level: Under at 1.76 and Over at 1.99.
| Goal line | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 2.73 | 1.40 |
| 2 | 4.55 | 1.15 |
| 3.5 | 1.76 | 1.99 |
Handicap prediction
On the 1-goal handicap line, AS Roma (+1) are at 1.52 and Real Madrid (+1) at 2.39. On the zero-handicap line, Real Madrid Draw No Bet (0) at 1.47 have shorter odds than AS Roma Draw No Bet (0) at 2.51.
| Home | Handicap | Away |
|---|---|---|
| 1.52 | 1 | 2.39 |
| 2.51 | 0 | 1.47 |
Double chance forecast
| Bookmaker | 1X | 12 | X2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 |
83/100
|
1/4
|
29/100
|
| William Hill |
17/20
|
11/50
|
3/10
|
| 888sport |
17/20
|
11/50
|
3/10
|
Odds are current as of the material publication date
Team total goals prediction
Bookmakers have set the following team goal totals for this match: AS Roma at 1.5 goals and Real Madrid at 2 goals.
AS Roma team total goals
For AS Roma's team total, Over 0.5 goals at 1.24 is shorter than Under 0.5 at 3.60, while Over 1 goal is 1.16 against 4.60 for Under 1. On the 1.5-goal line, Under is 1.62 and Over is 2.19; on the 2-goal line, Under is 1.25 and Over is 3.55.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 3.60 | 0.5 | 1.24 |
| 4.60 | 1 | 1.16 |
| 1.62 | 1.5 | 2.19 |
| 1.25 | 2 | 3.55 |
Real Madrid team total goals
For Real Madrid's team total, Over 0.5 goals is 1.10 against 5.40 for Under 0.5. On the 1.5-goal line, Over is 1.54 and Under is 2.34; on the 2-goal line, Under is 1.75 and Over is 2.00, while on the 2.5-goal line, Under is 1.43 and Over is 2.63.
| Under | Team total goals | Over |
|---|---|---|
| 5.40 | 0.5 | 1.10 |
| 2.34 | 1.5 | 1.54 |
| 1.75 | 2 | 2.00 |
| 1.43 | 2.5 | 2.63 |
Who Will Referee the Match
François Letexier (France)
Matches — 14 (international fixtures, 2025/26–2026/27);
Average fouls per match — 22;
Average yellow cards per match (including second yellows) — 3.6;
Matches with a red card — 2 out of 14;
Matches with a penalty — 6 out of 14.
