Asu Almabayev comes into this bout as one of the strongest flyweights in the UFC. He has a 23-3 record, has broken into the top seven and, after losing to Manel Kape, comfortably defeated José Ochoa and Alex Perez.
Asu Almabayev
Almabayev's main weapons are his wrestling, control and ability to take rounds through pressure. He times his takedowns well, works confidently from top position and does not allow opponents to fight at a comfortable tempo. At the same time, he is becoming more dangerous in the stand-up: in his last bout with Perez he landed a powerful uppercut and rocked his opponent, and when Alex shot for a takedown, Almabayev quickly locked in a guillotine choke and secured a submission victory.
It is also worth noting the words of his coach, Eduard Bazrov. He said that they have studied Johnson closely and prepared some surprises for him in the stand-up. This is important: if Asu can not only wrestle but also land regularly on the feet, it will be much harder for Johnson to maintain the distance he is used to.
Charles Johnson
Johnson is taller than Almabayev, has a reach advantage and works well at long range. He is the only UFC fighter who has beaten the current divisional champion Joshua Van.
Overall, he fights in a straightforward manner: he moves a lot, throws from range and tries to outwork his opponent, winning rounds through activity. But he has issues with takedown defence – if he is pressed to the fence and taken to the canvas, he often gives up positions and does not defend submissions well.
In this fight he will certainly try to keep Almabayev at range, work behind his jab and prevent him from shooting clean takedowns. Closer to the middle of the bout he is likely to engage more actively in exchanges, looking for a knockout.
Asu Almabayev vs Charles Johnson Prediction
Stylistically, this looks like a favourable match-up for Almabayev. Johnson is dangerous because of his pace, size and output, but Asu should have the advantage in wrestling, control and ability to impose his game plan.
Almabayev is unlikely to force the action. His task will be to close the distance quickly, drive his opponent to the fence for takedowns, win key exchanges and stop Johnson from dictating the fight. Even if Charles Johnson is successful in certain stand-up segments, Almabayev can compensate for that with his wrestling and constant pressure.
Given the styles of both fighters, the most likely scenario is a competitive three-round bout in which Asu methodically racks up points with his wrestling and the kind of sequences that are clearer for the judges.
