Adam Williams presents his prediction for the UFC 311 fight.
Jailton Almeida
By constantly changing distances, Jailton will make Serghei anxious, causing him to throw pre-planned boxing combinations into thin air. Almeida will execute one-twos and retreat to a safe range. The Brazilian will attempt to duck under his opponent's long jab and securely grab his lead leg. From there, Jailton will either take the bout to the ground or switch to controlling the body. While holding Spivak at the side of the cage, Almeida will throw punches and look for a submission opportunity. On the mat, the Brazilian will immediately go for a finish, as holding Serghei down will not be easy.
Serghei Spivak
Serghei will put full force into every strike because the Brazilian could shoot for a takedown at any moment. Spivak will unleash numerous heavy jabs and uppercuts, trying to reposition himself after each offensive move. He will not forget deceptive attacks designed to force Jailton to retreat and abandon his takedown positioning. When the Brazilian eventually goes for a takedown, Serghei will attempt to pin him against the cage or throw him over the hip. Spivak will not hesitate to operate from the top, raining down destructive ground-and-pound on Almeida. He will allow Jailton to stand only if there's a submission threat.
Betting Odds
Bookmakers believe Jailton won't allow himself to be caught in the stand-up and will dismantle Spivak on the ground. The odds on Almeida's victory are 1.21. A swift victory over Tybura did not change analysts' views on Serghei, who is still considered a middle-tier fighter. A bet on Spivak's victory is available at odds of 4.50.
Jailton Almeida vs Serghei Spivak Prediction
Serghei will dominate the first half of the round with smart movement and superior boxing skills. He might catch Jailton with a counter punch in the very first minute, but if he concedes a takedown, he risks losing early or giving up the round. The next five minutes will be even more explosive, as Almeida will have figured out how to effectively shoot for a takedown, and Spivak will be ready to counter-attack. It's difficult to envision a judges' decision in this fight, given that both heavyweights will start hunting for a finish from the outset. It's likely that either Almeida will secure a submission in the second round, or Spivak will knock him out in the first segment.
